IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/21006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dual Labor Market and the "Phillips Curve Puzzle"

Author

Listed:
  • AOYAMA Hideaki
  • Corrado DI GUILMI
  • FUJIWARA Yoshi
  • YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi

Abstract

Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japan's experience during the 1990's changed the consensus view on price held by economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and the zero-interest-rate bound at the same time, BOJ had difficulty in conducting effective monetary policy. It unusually prolonged Japan's stagnation. The excessively low inflation which annoys central banks today is translated into the "Phillips curve puzzle." In the US and Japan, in the course of recovery from the Great Recession after the 2008 global financial crisis, the unemployment rate had steadily declined to the level which was commonly regarded as lower than the natural rate or NAIRU; and yet, inflation stayed low. In this paper, we consider a minimal model of labor market. The essential assumption is that the labor market is dual. In this model, we explore what kinds of changes in the economy flatten the Phillips curve. The level of bargaining power of workers, the elasticity of the supply of labor to wages in the secondary market and the composition of the workforce are the main factors in explaining the flattening of the Phillips curve. We argue that the changes we consider in the model, in fact, have plausibly flattened the Phillips curve in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • AOYAMA Hideaki & Corrado DI GUILMI & FUJIWARA Yoshi & YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi, 2021. "Dual Labor Market and the "Phillips Curve Puzzle"," Discussion papers 21006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:21006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/21e006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    2. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    3. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    4. Andrew GORDON, 2017. "New and Enduring Dual Structures of Employment in Japan: The Rise of Non-Regular Labor, 1980s–2010s," Social Science Japan Journal, University of Tokyo and Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 9-36.
    5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    6. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    7. Carluccio, Juan & Bas, Maria, 2015. "The impact of worker bargaining power on the organization of global firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 162-181.
    8. SHINADA Naoki, 2011. "Quality of Labor, Capital, and Productivity Growth in Japan: Effects of employee age, seniority, and capital vintage," Discussion papers 11036, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Iwasaki, Yuto & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2021. "Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Ian M. McDonald & Robert M. Solow, 1985. "Wages and Employment in a Segmented Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1115-1141.
    11. Anna Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2020. "The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An Explanation for the Recent Evolution of the American Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 1-96.
    12. Kyoji Fukao & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2006. "Why Did Japan'S Tfp Growth Slow Down In The Lost Decade? An Empirical Analysis Based On Firm‐Level Data Of Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 195-228, June.
    13. Benoit Mojon & Xavier Ragot, 2020. "Can an ageing workforce explain low inflation?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 73-79, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. McDonald, Ian M & Solow, Robert M, 1981. "Wage Bargaining and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 896-908, December.
    15. repec:oup:ssjapj:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:9-36. is not listed on IDEAS
    16. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    17. Kawaguchi, Daiji & Ueno, Yuko, 2013. "Declining long-term employment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 19-36.
    18. repec:oup:sscjjp:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:9-36. is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Wataru Hirata & Toshitaka Maruyama & Tomohide Mineyama, 2020. "Flattening of the Wage Phillips Curve and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: The Japanese Experience in the 2010s," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    20. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    21. Corrado Di Guilmi & Yoshi Fujiwara, 2020. "Dual labor market, inflation, and aggregate demand in an agent-based model of the Japanese macroeconomy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hideaki Aoyama & Corrado Guilmi & Yoshi Fujiwara & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2022. "Dual labor market and the “Phillips curve puzzle”: the Japanese experience," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1419-1435, November.
    2. Guilmi, Corrado Di & Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2022. "Dual labor market, financial fragility, and deflation in an agent-based model of the Japanese macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 346-371.
    3. Bhattarai, Keshab, 2016. "Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 93-103.
    4. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Eggertsson, Gauti, 2023. "It's Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 18116, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Goulven Rubin, 2018. "Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01821825, HAL.
    10. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    11. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    12. Kato, Ryuta Ray & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 33-58.
    13. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    14. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited," MPRA Paper 119478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," FMM Working Paper 74-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    17. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    18. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2020. "Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 5, pages 149-172, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "How Tight are U.S. Labor Markets?," NBER Working Papers 29739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2023. "Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics," Working Paper 2023/2, Norges Bank.
    21. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2019. "Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 846, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:21006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.