IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/new/wpaper/2201.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Setterfield

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

  • Robert A. Blecker

    (Department of Economics, American University)

Abstract

This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and firms. The resulting account is consistent with the main stylized facts that characterize the evolution of the US PC since 1948: the disappearance and subsequent reappearance of a ‘standard’ PC (relating the level of the inflation rate, not the change in this rate, to the rate of unemployment); and the flattening of the PC since the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Setterfield & Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions," Working Papers 2201, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2022/NSSR_WP_012022.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield & Ibrahim Shikaki, 2020. "Is there scientific progress in macroeconomics? The case of the NAIRU," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 19-38, April.
    2. Anna Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2020. "The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An Explanation for the Recent Evolution of the American Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 1-96.
    3. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Demand-Led Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1864.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2015. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 258-296, January.
    5. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
    6. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    7. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    8. repec:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:1:p:111-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Cornwall,John & Cornwall,Wendy, 2001. "Capitalist Development in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521341493, September.
    10. Mark Setterfield, 2006. "Balancing the Macroeconomic Books on the Backs of Workers: A Simple Analytical Political Economy Model of Contemporary U.S. Capitalism," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 46-63.
    11. Thomas Palley, 1997. "Does Inflation Grease the Wheels of Adjustment? New evidence from the US economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 387-398.
    12. Thomas I. Palley, 1999. "Conflict, Distribution, and Finance in Alternative Macroeconomic Traditions," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 102-132, December.
    13. Thomas I. Palley, 2019. "The Fracturing of Globalization: Implications of Economic Resentments and Geopolitical Contradictions," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(1), pages 49-66, January.
    14. Robert G. King & Yang K. Lu, 2021. "The Rise, Fall and Stabilization of U.S. Inflation: Shifting Regimes and Evolving Reputation," NBER Working Papers 29585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Thomas I. Palley, 2003. "The Backward–Bending Phillips Curve And The Minimum Unemployment Rate Of Inflation: Wage Adjustment With Opportunistic Firms," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 35-50, January.
    16. Thomas Palley, 1998. "Macroeconomics with Conflict and Income Distribution," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 329-342.
    17. Setterfield, Mark, 2007. "The rise, decline and rise of incomes policies in the US during the post-war era: an institutional-analytical explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 127-146, August.
    18. Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory," FMM Working Paper 26-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Palley, Thomas, 2012. "The economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 221-230.
    20. Thomas I. Palley, 2002. "Economic contradictions coming home to roost? Does the U.S. economy face a long-term aggregate demand generation problem?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 9-32.
    21. Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory: hysteresis of ideas and the natural rate of unemployment," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 473-492, October.
    22. Mark Setterfield & John Cornwall, 2002. "A Neo-Kaldorian Perspective on the Rise and Decline of the Golden Age," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 587-611, October.
    2. Rolim, Lilian & Carvalho, Laura & Lang, Dany, 2024. "Monetary policy rules and the inequality-augmented Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Lilian N. Rolim & Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "Income distribution, productivity growth, and workers’ bargaining power in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 473-516, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," FMM Working Paper 74-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    3. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    4. Setterfield, Mark, 2011. "Anticipations of the Crisis: On the Similarities between post-Keynesian Economics and Regulation Theory," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 10.
    5. Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Neoliberalism: An Entrenched but Exhausted Growth Regime," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(79), pages 131-146, May.
    6. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    7. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mark Setterfield, 2010. "Endogenous Growth: A Kaldorian Approach," Working Papers 1001, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    11. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    12. Hideaki Aoyama & Corrado Di Guilmi & Yoshi Fujiwara & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2021. "Dual Labor Market and the "Phillips Curve Puzzle"," Papers 2103.06482, arXiv.org.
    13. Mario Cassetti, 2006. "A note on the long-run behaviour of Kaleckian models," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 497-508.
    14. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Whatever Happened to the ‘Goodwin Pattern’? Profit Squeeze Dynamics in the Modern American Labour Market," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 263-286, January.
    15. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    16. Eduardo F. Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2015. "A simple analytical model of the adverse real effects of inflation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 637-665, November.
    17. Louis-Philippe Rochon & Marc Setterfield, 2011. "Post-Keynesian Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Performance: A Comparative Evaluation," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon (ed.), Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Parui, Pintu, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Financialization and the Wage Gap between Blue and White Collar Workers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 416-443.
    19. Mark Setterfield, 2014. "Using Interest Rates as the Instrument of Monetary Policy: Beware Real effects, Positive Feedbacks, and Discontinuities," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(70), pages 7-22, June.
    20. Giorgos Argitis, 2011. "A view on post-Keynesian interest rate policy," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 91-112.
    21. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 587-611, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips Curve; inflation; unemployment; natural rate hypothesis; bargaining power; institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Setterfield (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/denewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.