IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfe/zbefri/v36y2018i2p559-583.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are unemployment rates stationary for SEE10 countries? Evidence from linear and nonlinear dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Saša Obradoviæ

    (University of Kragujevac – Faculty of Economics, Djure Pucara 3, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia. Street, 300115 Timisoara, Romania.)

  • Lela Ristiæ

    (University of Kragujevac – Faculty of Economics, Djure Pucara 3, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia.)

  • Nemanja Lojanica

    (University of Kragujevac – Faculty of Economics, Djure Pucara 3, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia.)

Abstract

This article aims to answer the questions concerning the dynamics of unemployment rates, including whether there is a subsequent hysteresis in the selected sample of ten countries of the South East Europe. The linear and nonlinear tests have been used to determine the stationarity of unemployment rates. The findings show that in eight out of ten countries, unemployment is a stationary process which implies that the hysteresis hypothesis has not been confirmed. The unemployment rates in Albania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Greece, Montenegro and Turkey manifest mean reverting behaviour. The movements of unemployment rates in the next period can be forecasted with a relatively high degree of certainty in terms of the mentioned countries. The unemployment in FYR Macedonia and Serbia is a non-stationary process. The results further emphasize the importance of allowing asymmetric adjustment and structural breaks, especially in the case of Romania, Montenegro and Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Saša Obradoviæ & Lela Ristiæ & Nemanja Lojanica, 2018. "Are unemployment rates stationary for SEE10 countries? Evidence from linear and nonlinear dynamics," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 559-583.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:36:y:2018:i:2:p:559-583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.efri.uniri.hr/upload/08-Obradovic-Ristic-Lojanica-2018-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    2. Matias Mednik & Cesar M. Rodriguez & Inder J. Ruprah, 2012. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 448-466, May.
    3. Cheng, Shu-Ching & Wu, Tsung-pao & Lee, Kuei-Chiu & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "Flexible Fourier unit root test of unemployment for PIIGS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 142-148.
    4. Chang, Tsangyao, 2011. "Hysteresis in unemployment for 17 OECD countries: Stationary test with a Fourier function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2208-2214, September.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Ozturk, Ilhan & Farooq, Abdul, 2013. "Are fluctuations in electricity consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from developed and developing economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 551-554.
    6. Cheng, Ka Ming & Durmaz, Nazif & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Stern, Michael L., 2012. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of US unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 428-434.
    7. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    8. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    9. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    10. Jiang, Yushi & Chang, Tsangyao, 2016. "Bring Quantile Unit Root Test back in Testing Hysteresis in Unemployment for the United States," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-13, March.
    11. Sollis, Robert, 2009. "A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 118-125, January.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha, 2016. "Testing Unemployment Theories: A Multivariate Long Memory Approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 95-112, May.
    13. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
    14. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    15. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    16. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    17. Robinson Kruse, 2011. "A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 71-85, February.
    18. Ucar, Nuri & Omay, Tolga, 2009. "Testing for unit root in nonlinear heterogeneous panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 5-8, July.
    19. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2018. "Unemployment persistence in EU countries: new evidence using bounded unit root tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(12), pages 807-810, July.
    20. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2007. "Testing for time series linearity," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 149-165, March.
    21. Harvey David I & Leybourne Stephen J & Xiao Bin, 2008. "A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, September.
    22. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    24. Magnus Gustavsson & Par Osterholm, 2011. "Mean reversion in the US unemployment rate - evidence from bootstrapped out-of-sample forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 643-646.
    25. Aviral Tiwari, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Australia: evidence using nonlinear and stationarity tests with breaks," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 681-695, March.
    26. Burak Güriş & Burcu Yavuz Tiftikçigil & Muhammed Tıraşoğlu, 2017. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in Turkey: evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 35-46, January.
    27. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    28. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    29. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2012. "Unemployment hysteresis in the East Asia-Pacific region: new evidence from MADF and SURADF tests," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 133-143, November.
    30. Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2010. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in nonlinear heterogeneous panels: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1097-1102, September.
    31. Cross,Rod Preface by-Name:Blanchard,Olivier (ed.), 1995. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521483308.
    32. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten European countries: panel SURADF approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 881-886.
    33. Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory," FMM Working Paper 26-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    34. Anton Antonov GERUNOV, 2016. "Automating Analytics: Forecasting Time Series in Economics and Business," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 340-349, June.
    35. Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A, 2002. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 95-103, April.
    36. Andini, Corrado & Andini, Monica, 2018. "Unemployment Persistence And Quantile Parameter Heterogeneity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1298-1320, July.
    37. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2017. "A new approach to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1253-1280, November.
    38. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    39. Magnus Gustavsson & Par Osterholm, 2006. "Hysteresis and non-linearities in unemployment rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 545-548.
    40. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2004. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 413-417, September.
    41. Thomas Palley, 2018. "Recovering Keynesian Phillips curve theory: hysteresis of ideas and the natural rate of unemployment," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 473-492, October.
    42. Srinivasan, Naveen & Mitra, Pratik, 2012. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Fact or fiction?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 419-422.
    43. Russell Smyth, 2003. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 181-192, June.
    44. Suleyman Bolat & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Ahmet Utku Erdayi, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in the Eurozone area: evidences from nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 536-540, May.
    45. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
    46. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity In Less‐Developed And Transition Economies: A Review Paper," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 617-658, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
    2. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
    3. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Heshmati, Almas & Azam, Muhammad, 2020. "Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Robert Mudida, 2019. "Hysteresis of unemployment rates in Africa: new findings from Fourier ADF test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 2781-2795, November.
    5. Vuyokazi Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Is There Hysteresis in South African Unemployment? Evidence from the Post-Recessionary Period," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 15(3), pages 365-387, JUNE.
    6. Dieu Nsenga & Mirada Nach & Hlalefang Khobai & Clement Moyo & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Is it the natural rate or hysteresis hypothesis for unemployment in Newly Industrialized Economies?," Working Papers 1817, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Apr 2018.
    7. Nsenga, Dieu & Nach, Mirada & Khobai, Hlalefang & Moyo, Clement & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Is it the natural rate or hysteresis hypothesis for unemployment rates in Newly Industrialized Economies?," MPRA Paper 86274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cheng, Shu-Ching & Wu, Tsung-pao & Lee, Kuei-Chiu & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "Flexible Fourier unit root test of unemployment for PIIGS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 142-148.
    9. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2022. "Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: Evidence and policy implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 230-239.
    10. Zarina Oflaz, 2017. "Structural Break, Nonlinearity and the Hysteresis hypothesis: Evidence from new unit root tests," Econometrics Letters, Bilimsel Mektuplar Organizasyonu (Scientific letters), vol. 4(2), pages 1-16.
    11. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2014. "Hysteresis versus natural rate in Taiwan's unemployment: Evidence from the educational attainment categories," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 293-304.
    12. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    13. Iman Cheratian & Saleh Goltabar & Luis A. Gil-Alaña, 2023. "The unemployment hysteresis by territory, gender, and age groups in Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, February.
    14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 312-325, March.
    15. Ayca Doganer, 2022. "Determining Unemployment Hysteresis in European Countries Using Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests: The 1991-2020 Period," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 753-785, December.
    16. Bakas, Dimitrios & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2014. "Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 551-562.
    17. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    18. Jing-Ping Li & Omid Ranjbar & Tsangyao Chang, 2017. "Unemployment Hysteresis In Piigs Countries: A New Test With Both Sharp And Smooth Breaks," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1165-1177, December.
    19. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2017. "A new approach to testing unemployment hysteresis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1253-1280, November.
    20. Melis Tartici, 2015. "A Reinvestigation of the Hysteresis Hypothesis in the OECD Countries," Econometrics Letters, Bilimsel Mektuplar Organizasyonu (Scientific letters), vol. 2(1), pages 22-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hysteresis; unemployment rate; non-linearity; stationarity and unit root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:36:y:2018:i:2:p:559-583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Danijela Ujcic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efrijhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.