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Testing unemployment theories: A multivariate long memory approach

Listed author(s):
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    (Brunel University London)

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra and NCID)

  • Yuliya Lovcha

    (Universitat Rovira-i-Virgili)

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of both the hysteresis and the natural rate hypothesis on unemployment in three major economies, namely the UK, the US and Japan, by estimating the degree of dependence in the unemployment series. Both univariate and multivariate long memory methods are used. The results vary depending on whether the former or the latter approach is followed. Specifically, when taking a univariate approach, the unit root null cannot be rejected in case of the UK and Japanese unemployment series, and some degree of mean reversion (d

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Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2016)
Issue (Month): (May)
Pages: 95-112

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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:19:y:2016:n:1:p:95-112
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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 521-544, 08.
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  4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Guglielmo M. Caporale, 2008. "Modelling the US, the UK and Japanese unemployment rates. Fractional integrationand structural breaks," Faculty Working Papers 11/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
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  15. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
  16. Edmund S. Phelps, 1999. "Behind This Structural Boom: The Role of Asset Valuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 63-68, May.
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