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Testing for unemployment hysteresis in Turkey: evidence from nonlinear unit root tests

Listed author(s):
  • Burak Güriş

    ()

    (Istanbul University)

  • Burcu Yavuz Tiftikçigil

    ()

    (Gedik University)

  • Muhammed Tıraşoğlu

    ()

    (Istanbul University)

Abstract Unemployment rate is one of the most critical indicators of labor market and is generally an important measurement tool to identify the status of the economies of countries. The impact of transitory shocks on unemployment is analyzed via the Natural Unemployment Rate—NAIRU and the Hysteresis Hypothesis. The term hysteresis describes a situation in which transitory shocks have persistent effects. According to hysteresis hypothesis, the cyclical supply shocks lead to structural changes and have a persistent effect on unemployment in the long run. Therefore this causes the natural unemployment rate to go up. Unemployment is an important economic problem for Turkish economy. Finding a solution to the unemployment problem that causes significant economic and social problems is one of the most important fields of work for policymakers. Therefore, it is important to identify the impact of transitory shocks on unemployment in order to develop effective employment policies to solve the unemployment problem. Different from the other studies in literature that made use of linear techniques, the presence of the hysteresis hypothesis for Turkey is analyzed using the nonlinear unit root tests Kapetanios et al. J Econom 112 359–379, (2003) and Kruse Stat Pap 52 71–85, (2011) for the period 1970–2014. The findings indicate that the hysteresis hypothesis is not valid for Turkey.

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File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-015-0292-z
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Quality & Quantity.

Volume (Year): 51 (2017)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 35-46

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Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-015-0292-z
DOI: 10.1007/s11135-015-0292-z
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  1. Fumitaka FURUOKA, 2014. "Does Hysteresis Exist in Unemployment? New Findings from Fourteen Regions of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(1), pages 59-78, February.
  2. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & da Silva, Cleomar Gomes, 2009. "Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 308-322, May.
  3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  4. Emmanuel Anoruo & Vasudeva N.R. Murthy, 2014. "Testing Nonlinear Inflation Convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-7.
  5. Juan Cuestas & Dean Garratt, 2011. "Is real GDP per capita a stationary process? Smooth transitions, nonlinear trends and unit root testing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 555-563, December.
  6. Robinson Kruse, 2011. "A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 71-85, February.
  7. Neudorfer, Peter & Pichelmann, K & Wagner, Michael, 1990. "Hysteresis, Nairu and Long Term Unemployment in Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 217-229.
  8. Harvey David I & Leybourne Stephen J & Xiao Bin, 2008. "A Powerful Test for Linearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, September.
  9. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  10. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
  11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity In Less-Developed And Transition Economies: A Review Paper," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 617-658, 09.
  12. Diego Romero-Avila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2007. "Unit root tests and persistence of unemployment: Spain vs. the United States," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 457-461.
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