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Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • García, Juan Angel
  • Montes-Galdón, Carlos

Abstract

The effects of the unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures undertaken by the U.S. Federal Reserve (and other major central banks) remain a crucial topic for research. This paper investigates their effects on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, a key dimension of UMP that has been largely overlooked. Our analysis provides two key insights. First, the anchoring of inflation expectations deteriorated significantly since late 2008. Second, the expansion of the Fed JEL Classification: C52, C55, E43, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel & Montes-Galdón, Carlos, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 1995, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20171995
    Note: 224580
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2020. "Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2017, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2025. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 1003-1021.
    5. Ellen Ryan & Karl Whelan, 2023. "A Model of QE, Reserve Demand, and the Money Multiplier," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 407-439, March.
    6. Rodriguez-Rodriguez, F.J. & Hierro, L.A. & Garzon, A.J., 2024. "Fed and ECB reaction functions during quantitative easing: Three phases of monetary policy, both conventional and unconventional," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 928-945.
    7. Ahn, Hie Joo & Xie, Shihan & Yang, Choongryul, 2024. "Effects of monetary policy on household expectations: The role of homeownership," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Soper, Carolyne, 2019. "Market risk and market-implied inflation expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Hanoma, Ahmed & Nautz, Dieter, 2018. "The information content of inflation swap rates for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: Evidence from a MIDAS analysis," Discussion Papers 2018/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    13. Karolina Tura-Gawron & Maria Siranova & Karol Fisikowski, 2018. "ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 50, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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