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Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data

Author

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  • Simon Smith
  • Allan Timmermann
  • Jonathan H. Wright

Abstract

We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns of instability and to examine lead-lag patterns in how individual inflation series change. We find evidence of a marked flattening in the Phillips curves for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Conversely, evidence of a flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and for the wage Phillips curve. US regional data and EU data point to a kink in the price Phillips curve which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Smith & Allan Timmermann & Jonathan H. Wright, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 31153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31153
    Note: ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Has the Phillips Curve Flattened?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    3. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2024. "Beveridgean Phillips Curve," Papers 2401.12475, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    4. Uwe Hassler & Marc-Oliver Pohle & Tanja Zahn, 2025. "Simultaneous Inference Bands for Autocorrelations," Papers 2503.18560, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    5. Divino, Jose Angelo & da Silva, Adriana Gomes, 2024. "Cash transfers and the Phillips curve: The case of Brazil during the pandemic," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 680-688.
    6. Brzozowski, Michał & Siwińska-Gorzelak, Joanna, 2024. "Did robots make wages less responsive to unemployment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Haschka, Rouven E., 2024. "Examining the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the U.S.: Why has the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakened?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    8. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Eggertsson, Gauti, 2023. "It's Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 18116, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bill Dupor & Marie Hogan & Jingchao Li, 2024. "A Decomposition of the Phillips Curve’s Flattening," Working Papers 2025-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Durand, Luigi & Fornero, Jorge Alberto, 2024. "Estimating the output gap in times of COVID-19," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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