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Phillips curves in the euro area

Author

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  • Moretti, Laura
  • Onorante, Luca
  • Zakipour Saber, Shayan

Abstract

We perform a robust estimation of the Phillips curve in the euro area using a battery of 630 theory-driven models. We extend the existing literature by adding model specifications, taking into account the uncertainty in the measurement of variables and testing for potential non-linearities and structural changes. Using Dynamic Model Averaging, we identify the most important determinants of inflation over the sample. We then forecast core inflation 12 quarters ahead and present its probability distribution. We compare the distribution of forecasts performed in recent years, and we assess, in a probabilistic manner, the convergence towards a sustainable path of inflation. JEL Classification: C30, E52, F41, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2295, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192295
    Note: 1004919
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    2. Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1042-1054.
    3. Ramskogler, Paul, 2021. "Labour market hierarchies and the macro-economy – Do labour market dualities affect wage growth in Europe?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 154-165.
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-León, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Discussion Papers 48/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Teresa Messner & Fabio Rumler, 2020. "Langfristige Determinanten der österreichischen Inflation – die Rolle des EU-Beitritts," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-Q2/20, pages 169-179.
    6. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2020. "Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 503, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2021. "A Phillips curve for the euro area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 2-17, April.
    8. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Lin, 2022. "Female small business owners in China: Discouraged, not discriminated," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    10. Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Philipp Piribauer, 2020. "A multi‐country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 911-926, September.
    11. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço & Robert Hill, 2020. "House price forecasting and uncertainty: Examining Portugal and Spain," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Antonio Ribba, 2020. "Is the unemployment–inflation trade‐off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2393-2410, September.
    13. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2023. "Monetary policy and the wage inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    15. Álvarez, Luis J. & Correa-López, Mónica, 2020. "Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    16. Jac C. Heckelman & Bonnie Wilson, 2021. "Targeting inflation targeting: the influence of interest groups," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 533-554, December.
    17. Lehner, Lukas & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2022. "Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    18. Martin Schneider, 2024. "What contributes to consumer price inflation? A novel decomposition framework with an application to Austria (Martin Schneider)," Working Papers 255, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    19. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    20. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Fornero, Jorge & Sansone, Andrés, 2023. "A proposal for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    21. Matteo Cacciatore & Dmitry Matveev & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2022. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature," Discussion Papers 2022-9, Bank of Canada.
    22. Guillermo Carlomagno & Jorge Fornero & Andrés Sansone, 2021. "Toward a general framework for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 913, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2022. "Wage and unemployment: Evidence from online job vacancy data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 52-70.
    24. Antonio Ribba, 2019. "Is the unemployment inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," Department of Economics 0160, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    density forecast; Dynamic Model Averaging; non linearities; Phillips curves; structural changes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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