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The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility

  • Gerald A. Carlino
  • Robert H. DeFina
  • Keith Sill

This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1956 to 2002 and examines its possible sources. The authors use a panel design that exploits the considerable state-level variation in volatility during the period. The roles of monetary policy, oil prices, industrial employment shifts and a coincident index of business cycle variables are explored. Overall, these four variables taken together explain as much as 31 percent of the fluctuations in employment growth volatility. Individually, each of the four factors is found to have significantly contributed to fluctuations in employment growth volatility, although to differing degrees.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 11-16.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:11-16
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  1. Morgan, Donald & Rime, Bertrand & Strahan, Philip E., 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," SIFR Research Report Series 30, Institute for Financial Research.
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  17. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Robert J Gordon, 2005. "What Caused the Decline in US Business Cycle Volatility?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  19. Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2003. "The Decline in Income Growth Volatility in the United States: Evidence from Regional Data," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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  22. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
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  24. Donald P. Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584.
  25. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
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  27. Attaran, Mohsen, 1986. "Industrial Diversity and Economic Performance in U.S. Areas," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 20(2), pages 44-54, July.
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  29. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2003. "Postwar period changes in employment volatility: new evidence from state/industry panel data," Working Papers 03-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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