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A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis

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  • Christian Schoder

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

Abstract

A Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium (DSDE) model is proposed for business cycle analysis. Unemployment arises from job rationing due to insufficient aggregate spending. The nominal wage is taken as a policy variable subject to a collective Nash bargaining process between workers and firms with the state of the labor market affecting the relative bargaining power. A precautionary saving motive arising from an uninsurable risk of permanent income loss implies an equilibrium relation between consumption, income and wealth. The DSDE model differs from the corresponding Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with labor market clearing in important respects: (i) Output is determined from the demand side and not from the supply side; (ii) The steady-state interest rate cannot be interpreted as a natural rate; (iii) It has to be smaller than the rate of economic growth in order for a steady state to exist; (iv) Determinacy of the solution requires the monetary policy response to in ation to be high (low) at low (high) steady-state interest rates; (v) Fighting in ation is stabilizing in the active monetary policy regime but destabilizing in the passive monetary policy regime; (vi) Macroeconomic responses to monetary policy and productivity shocks are similar to those of the DSGE model but give more weight to quantity adjustment and predict the real wage to increase with productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Schoder, 2017. "A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis," Working Papers 1701, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:1701
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    Cited by:

    1. Schoder, Christian, 2017. "Are Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium models Keynesian or neoclassical?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-63.
    2. Christian Schoder, 2017. "An estimated Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model of Euro-Area unemployment," Working Papers 1725, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic stochastic disequilibrium; labor market disequilibrium; labor rationing; collective wage bargaining; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation

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