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A dynamic model of financial balances for the United Kingdom

Listed author(s):
  • Burgess, Stephen

    ()

    (Bank of England)

  • Burrows, Oliver

    ()

    (Bank of England)

  • Godin, Antoine

    ()

    (Kingston University)

  • Kinsella, Stephen

    ()

    (University of Limerick)

  • Millard, Stephen

    ()

    (Bank of England)

We construct a new scenario analysis model for the United Kingdom using ONS data from 1987 to the present. The model links decisions about real variables to credit creation in the financial sector and decisions about asset allocation among investors for a wide array of financial assets. We develop, estimate, and calibrate the model from first principles as well as describing the stock-flow coherent database we construct to validate the model. We impose several scenarios on the model to test its usefulness as a medium term scenario analysis tool, including increases in banks’ capital ratios, sudden stops, changes in investment, increases in house prices and fiscal expansions.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 614.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 02 Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0614
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  2. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
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  11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 584-588, May.
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  14. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978.
  15. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
  16. Harimohan, Rashmi & Nelson, Benjamin, 2014. "How might macroprudential capital policy affect credit conditions?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(3), pages 287-303.
  17. Stephen Kinsella & Matthias Greiff & Edward J Nell, 2011. "Income Distribution in a Stock-Flow Consistent Model with Education and Technological Change," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 134-149.
  18. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters," Bank of England working papers 529, Bank of England.
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  20. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
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