IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2019-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of a higher leverage ratio on the South African economy

Author

Listed:
  • Rob Davies
  • Laurence Harris
  • Konstantin Makrelov

Abstract

We employ a micro-founded and stock-and-flow-consistent model to study the impact of a higher leverage ratio on the South African economy. The model provides a rich representation of institutional balance sheets. The relationship between bank capital, risk-taking behaviour, lending spreads, and economic activity is highlighted. The financial accelerator mechanism operates through the balance sheets of all economic institutions. The introduction of a higher leverage ratio is likely to generate negative economic impacts in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Davies & Laurence Harris & Konstantin Makrelov, 2019. "The impact of a higher leverage ratio on the South African economy," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-35, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp-2019-35.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Estimates Of Household Sector Wealth For South Africa, 1970–2003," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(2), pages 285-307, June.
    3. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    4. Burgess, Stephen & Burrows, Oliver & Godin, Antoine & Kinsella, Stephen & Millard, Stephen, 2016. "A dynamic model of financial balances for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 614, Bank of England.
    5. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris, Charles W. & Hooley, John & Korniyenko, Yevgeniya & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2014. "The international transmission of bank capital requirements: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 368-382.
    6. Cohen, Benjamin H. & Scatigna, Michela, 2016. "Banks and capital requirements: Channels of adjustment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 56-69.
    7. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2009. "A tale of two policies: prudential regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Kiel Working Papers 1569, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. De Marco, Filippo & Kneer, Christiane & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2021. "The real effects of capital requirements and monetary policy: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Giovanni Caggiano & Pietro Calice, 2011. "Working Paper 139 - The Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Capital Ratios on African Economies," Working Paper Series 359, African Development Bank.
    10. Ignazio Angeloni, 2009. "A Tale of Two Policies- Prudential Regulation and Monetary Policy with Fragile Banks," Working Papers 345, Bruegel.
    11. Thakor, Anjan V., 2012. "Incentives to innovate and financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 130-148.
    12. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2016. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements on lending and growth during an upswing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 15-27.
    13. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2013. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 452-490.
    14. Hamid Mehran, 2011. "Bank Capital and Value in the Cross-Section," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1019-1067.
    15. Alessandro Caiani & Antoine Godin & Stefano Lucarelli, 2014. "A Stock Flow Consistent Analysis of a Schumpeterian Innovation Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 397-429, July.
    16. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    17. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    18. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    20. Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 205-248, April.
    21. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
    22. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    23. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    24. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
    25. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S., 1998. "The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 677-714, December.
    26. Michael W. M. Roos & Wolfgang J. Luhan, 2013. "Information, Learning and Expectations in an Experimental Model Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 513-531, July.
    27. Allen, Bill & Chan, Ka Kei & Milne, Alistair & Thomas, Steve, 2012. "Basel III: Is the cure worse than the disease?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 159-166.
    28. Christian A. Emini & Hippolyte Fofack, 2004. "A financial social accounting matrix for the integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : application to Cameroon with a fixed-price multiplier analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3219, The World Bank.
    29. Besanko, David & Kanatas, George, 1996. "The Regulation of Bank Capital: Do Capital Standards Promote Bank Safety?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 160-183, April.
    30. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    31. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    32. Amela Hubic, 2012. "A Financial Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 72, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    33. Allen N. Berger & Björn Imbierowicz & Christian Rauch, 2016. "The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 729-770, June.
    34. Bridges, Jonathan & Gregory, David & Nielsen, Mette & Pezzini, Silvia & Radia, Amar & Spaltro, Marco, 2014. "The impact of capital requirements on bank lending," Bank of England working papers 486, Bank of England.
    35. Amela Hubic, 2012. "A Financial Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Luxembourg," EcoMod2012 4560, EcoMod.
    36. Meh, Césaire A. & Moran, Kevin, 2010. "The role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 555-576, March.
    37. Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital Regulation and Banks' Financial Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 165-211, March.
    38. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 21-44, Fall.
    39. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris, Charles & Hooley, John & Korniyenko , Yevgeniya & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2014. "The international transmission of bank capital requirements: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 497, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin Makrelov & Neryvia Pillay & Bojosi Morule, 2023. "Fiscal risks and their impact on banks' capital buffers in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 116-134, March.
    2. Shaun de Jager & Riaan Ehlers & Keabetswe Mojapelo & Pieter Pienaar, 2021. "Shortterm impacts and interaction of macroprudential policy tools," Working Papers 11020, South African Reserve Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-6, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.
    4. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Shaun de Jager & Riaan Ehlers & Keabetswe Mojapelo & Pieter Pienaar, 2021. "Shortterm impacts and interaction of macroprudential policy tools," Working Papers 11020, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, December.
    8. Jochen Mankart & Alexander Michaelides & Spyros Pagratis, 2020. "Bank capital buffers in a dynamic model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 473-502, June.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    10. Konstantin Makrelov & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2021. "The impact of capital flow reversal shocks in South Africa: a stock- and-flow-consistent analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3-4), pages 475-501, July.
    11. Konstantin Makrelov & Neryvia Pillay & Bojosi Morule, 2023. "Fiscal risks and their impact on banks' capital buffers in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 116-134, March.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    13. Retselisitsoe I. Thamae & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "The impact of bank regulation on bank lending: a review of international literature," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 405-418, December.
    14. Neryvia Pillay & Konstantin Makrelov, 2024. "The lending implications of banks holding excess capital," Working Papers 11056, South African Reserve Bank.
    15. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Time consistency and economic growth a case study of south african macroeconomic policy," Working Papers 10421, South African Reserve Bank.
    16. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Zheng, Changjun & Jiang, Chonghui & Qian, Ningyu, 2020. "Capital regulation, deposit insurance and bank risk: International evidence from normal and crisis periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Moreira, Fernando, 2022. "Are we living in an illusion? A fresh look at the importance of bank capital in the quest for stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Anginer, Deniz & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Mare, Davide S., 2018. "Bank capital, institutional environment and systemic stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 97-106.
    19. Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1888, European Central Bank.
    20. Klein, Paul-Olivier & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium; Financial dynamics; Leverage ratio; Stock and flow; Risk management;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.