IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joevec/v31y2021i1d10.1007_s00191-020-00683-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heterogeneous expectations, forecasting behaviour and policy experiments in a hybrid Agent-based Stock-flow-consistent model

Author

Listed:
  • Severin Reissl

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
    Universität Bielefeld)

Abstract

This paper presents a hybrid agent-based stock-flow-consistent model featuring heterogeneous banks, purposely built to examine the effects of variations in banks’ expectations formation and forecasting behaviour and to conduct policy experiments with a focus on monetary and prudential policy. The model is initialised to a deterministic stationary state and a subset of its free parameters are calibrated empirically in order to reproduce characteristics of UK macro-time-series data. Experiments carried out on the baseline focus on the expectations formation and forecasting behaviour of banks through allowing banks to switch between forecasting strategies and having them engage in least-squares learning. Overall, simple heuristics are remarkably robust in the model. In the baseline, which represents a relatively stable environment, the use of arguably more sophisticated expectations formation mechanisms makes little difference to simulation results. In a modified version of the baseline representing a less stable environment alternative heuristics may in fact be destabilising. To conclude the paper, a range of policy experiments is conducted, showing that an appropriate mix of monetary and prudential policy can considerably attenuate the macroeconomic volatility produced by the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Reissl, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecasting behaviour and policy experiments in a hybrid Agent-based Stock-flow-consistent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 251-299, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:31:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00191-020-00683-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-020-00683-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00191-020-00683-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00191-020-00683-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_891, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    3. Eric Kemp-Benedict & Antoine Godin, 2017. "Introducing risk into a Tobin asset-allocation model," Working Papers PKWP1713, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4pa18fd9lf9h59m4vfavfcf61e is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    6. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
    7. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
    8. Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    10. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Francesco Lamperti & Antoine Mandel & Mauro Napoletano & Alessandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Tomas Balint & Igor Khorenzhenko, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03399574, HAL.
    13. Seppecher, Pascal, 2012. "Flexibility Of Wages And Macroeconomic Instability In An Agent-Based Computational Model With Endogenous Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 284-297, September.
    14. A G Haldane & A E Turrell, 2018. "An interdisciplinary model for macroeconomics," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 219-251.
    15. Sylvain Barde & Sander van Der Hoog, 2017. "An empirical validation protocol for large-scale agent-based models," Working Papers hal-03458672, HAL.
    16. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Assenza, Tiziana & Delli Gatti, Domenico, 2013. "E Pluribus Unum: Macroeconomic modelling for multi-agent economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1659-1682.
    19. Isabelle Salle & Murat Yildizoglu & Martin Zumpe & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2012. "Modelling social learning in an Agent-Based new keynesian macroeconomic model," Post-Print hal-00779045, HAL.
    20. Paul Windrum & Giorgio Fagiolo & Alessio Moneta, 2007. "Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models: Alternatives and Prospects," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
    21. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Dany Lang, 2019. "Is the market really a good teacher?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 299-335, March.
    22. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2015. "Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent modelling: a survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(1), pages 157-187.
    23. Botta, Alberto & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2021. "Inequality and finance in a rent economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 998-1029.
    24. Pascal Seppecher, 2016. "Modèles multi-agents et stock-flux cohérents : une convergence logique et nécessaire," CEPN Working Papers 2016-03, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    25. Burgess, Stephen & Burrows, Oliver & Godin, Antoine & Kinsella, Stephen & Millard, Stephen, 2016. "A dynamic model of financial balances for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 614, Bank of England.
    26. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    27. Italo Pedrosa & Dany Lang, 2018. "Heterogeneity, distribution and financial fragility of non-financial firms: an agent-based stock-flow consistent (AB-SFC) model," CEPN Working Papers 2018-11, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    28. Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock†Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    29. Marc Lavoie, 2014. "Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations," Post-Print hal-01343652, HAL.
    30. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    31. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo G. & Tsionas, Mike, 2017. "Bayesian estimation of agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 26-47.
    32. George W. Evans, 2001. "Expectations in Macroeconomics. Adaptive versus Eductive Learning," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(3), pages 573-582.
    33. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    34. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    35. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications Second edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10495.
    36. Salle, Isabelle & Seppecher, Pascal, 2018. "Stabilizing an unstable complex economy on the limitations of simple rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 289-317.
    37. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978, November.
    38. Arifovic, Jasmina, 2000. "Evolutionary Algorithms In Macroeconomic Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 373-414, September.
    39. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio, 2017. "A method for agent-based models validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-141.
    40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/13thfd12aa8rmplfudlgvgahff is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Assenza, Tiziana & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2015. "Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 5-28.
    42. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    43. Krug, Sebastian, 2018. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks 'lean against the wind' to foster macro-financial stability?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-69.
    44. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    45. Turrell, Arthur, 2016. "Agent-based models: understanding the economy from the bottom up," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(4), pages 173-188.
    46. Jakob Grazzini, 2012. "Analysis of the Emergent Properties: Stationarity and Ergodicity," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(2), pages 1-7.
    47. Schmitt, Noemi, 2018. "Heterogeneous expectations and asset price dynamics," BERG Working Paper Series 134, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    48. Assenza, T. & Delli Gatti, D. & Gallegati, M., 2007. "Heterogeneity and Aggregation in a Financial Accelerator Model," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    49. Freixas, Xavier & Laeven, Luc & Peydró, José-Luis, 2015. "Systemic Risk, Crises, and Macroprudential Regulation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262028697, December.
    50. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, Decembrie.
    51. Nikolaidi, Maria, 2015. "Securitisation, wage stagnation and financial fragility: a stock-flow consistent perspective," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 14078, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    52. Jo Michell, 2014. "A Steindlian account of the distribution of corporate profits and leverage: A stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model with agent-based microfoundations," Working Papers PKWP1412, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Deborah Noguera & Gabriel Montes-Rojas, 2023. "Minskyan model with credit rationing in a network economy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-26, March.
    2. Severin Reissl, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1704-1729, October.
    3. Papadopoulos, Georgios, 2020. "Probing the mechanism: lending rate setting in a data-driven agent-based model," MPRA Paper 102749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Stephen Millard & Nicholas Jackson, 2022. "Financial Stocks and Flows in the Time of Covid-19," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 543, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    3. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/20hflp7eqn97boh50no50tv67n is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/13thfd12aa8rmplfudlgvgahff is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
    9. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    10. Francesco Lamperti, 2018. "Empirical validation of simulated models through the GSL-div: an illustrative application," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(1), pages 143-171, April.
    11. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Kukacka, Jiri & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2018. "On the estimation of behavioral macroeconomic models via simulated maximum likelihood," Economics Working Papers 2018-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    14. Vandin, Andrea & Giachini, Daniele & Lamperti, Francesco & Chiaromonte, Francesca, 2022. "Automated and distributed statistical analysis of economic agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Reissl, Severin, 2020. "Minsky from the bottom up – Formalising the two-price model of investment in a simple agent-based framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 109-142.
    16. Donovan Platt, 2019. "A Comparison of Economic Agent-Based Model Calibration Methods," Papers 1902.05938, arXiv.org.
    17. Barde, Sylvain, 2020. "Macroeconomic simulation comparison with a multivariate extension of the Markov information criterion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.
    19. Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 257-281.
    20. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    21. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2qdhj5485p93jrnf08s1meeap9 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Harrodian instability in decentralized economies: an agent-based approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 539-567, July.
    24. Platt, Donovan, 2020. "A comparison of economic agent-based model calibration methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock-flow consistent models; Agent-based models; Expectations formation; Monetary policy; Prudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:31:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00191-020-00683-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.