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Stabilizing an unstable complex economy on the limitations of simple rules

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  • Salle, Isabelle
  • Seppecher, Pascal

Abstract

This paper offers a systematic comparison of a wide range of leaning-against-the-wind interest-rate policy rules within a macroeconomic, stock-flow consistent, agent-based model. The model generates endogenous booms and busts along credit cycles. As feedback loops on aggregate demand affect the goods and the labor markets, the real and the financial sides of the economy are closely interconnected. The baseline scenario is able to qualitatively reproduce a wide range of stylized facts. We show that a monetary policy rule that targets the movements in the net worth of firms significantly dampens the credit cycles and reduces the employment costs of financial crises, because this indicator incorporates early signals of financial imbalances. Performances of this three-mandate Taylor rule are also more robust to the specific parameter values and regulatory framework than the standard dual-mandate Taylor rules. Nonetheless, none of the policy rules under study completely eliminates the high employment costs of financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Salle, Isabelle & Seppecher, Pascal, 2018. "Stabilizing an unstable complex economy on the limitations of simple rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 289-317.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:289-317
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.02.014
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    Cited by:

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    2. Severin Reissl, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecasting behaviour and policy experiments in a hybrid Agent-based Stock-flow-consistent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 251-299, January.
    3. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Bardoscia, Marco & Carro, Adrian & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Napoletano, Mauro & Popoyan, Lilit & Roventini, Andrea & Uluc, Arzu, 2024. "The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model," Bank of England working papers 1066, Bank of England.
    5. Szymon Chudziak, 2022. "On the sources of economic growth, structural consistency of agent-based models and mental-accounting consumer behaviour," KAE Working Papers 2022-073, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    6. Oldham, Matthew, 2020. "Quantifying the concerns of Dimon and Buffett with data and computation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2020. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle: modelling Minsky with heterogeneous agents," Department of Economics University of Siena 819, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leaning-against-the-wind; Credit cycles; Monetary and macroprudential policies; Agent-based modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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