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Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model

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  • Teglio, Andrea
  • Mazzocchetti, Andrea
  • Ponta, Linda
  • Raberto, Marco
  • Cincotti, Silvano

Abstract

The 2008 financial crisis, and the subsequent global recession, triggered a wide-spread economic and political debate on the proper policy combination to deal with the crisis and to prevent similar ones in the future. Probably, the main dispute has been around the use of fiscal instruments in order to foster growth while keeping public debt under control. The European Union, for instance, endorsed “austerity” measures for fiscal consolidation but has been sharply criticized by several scholars. This paper aims at contributing to the current debate by presenting the outcomes of a computational study performed with the Eurace agent-based model. We set up an experiment with two base policy scenarios, i.e., stability and growth pact and fiscal compact, incrementally enriching them with complementary policies which relax fiscal rigidity and introduce quantitative easing. Results show that budgetary rigour performs well if and only if some mechanisms of fiscal relaxation and monetary accommodation are considered during bad times; thus confirming in a richer and more realistic model setting the fundamental tenet of Keynesian economics about the importance of sustaining aggregate demand during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Teglio, Andrea & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 59-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:157:y:2019:i:c:p:59-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.016
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    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Quantitative easing; Financial stability; Economic crisis; Agent-based modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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