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The Empirical Validation of an Agent-based Model

Author

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  • Pasquale Cirillo

    (Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland.)

  • Mauro Gallegati

    (Department of Economics, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Piazzale Martelli 8, IT-60121, Ancona, Italy.)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to empirically validate the agent-based macroeconomic model of Gaffeo et al. [2008]. We show that the microsimulated version of the model is able to replicate actual data with a satisfactory degree of precision. From a theoretical point of view, our validation approach is made up of three different steps: a calibrated microsimulation of the model with actual data, an ex-post descriptive validation of the results, and a simple calibration exercise to ameliorate the goodness-of-fit of the model. The validation procedure of this paper has been performed using Italian data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati, 2012. "The Empirical Validation of an Agent-based Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 525-547.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:easeco:v:38:y:2012:i:4:p:525-547
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    21. Carlo Bianchi & Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati & Pietro Vagliasindi, 2007. "Validating and Calibrating Agent-Based Models: A Case Study," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 245-264, October.
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    2. Anna Klabunde, 2014. "Computational Economic Modeling of Migration," Ruhr Economic Papers 0471, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Francesco Lamperti, 2015. "An Information Theoretic Criterion for Empirical Validation of Time Series Models," LEM Papers Series 2015/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Petrović, Marko & Ozel, Bulent & Teglio, Andrea & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? An agent-based setup for a trading and monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Teglio, Andrea & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 59-83.
    6. Jakob Grazzini & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2013. "Consistent Estimation of Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 130, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    7. Annalisa Fabretti, 2013. "On the problem of calibrating an agent based model for financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(2), pages 277-293, October.
    8. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    9. Klabunde, Anna, 2014. "Computational Economic Modeling of Migration," Ruhr Economic Papers 471, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens, 2016. "Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 73-97, February.
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