IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Consistent Estimation of Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance

  • Jakob Grazzini
  • Matteo G. Richiardi

Agent-based (AB) models are considered a promising tool for macroeconomic analysis. However, until estimation of AB models become a common practice, they will not get to the center stage of macroeconomics. Two difficulties arise in the estimation of AB models: (i) the criterion function has no simple analytical expression, and (ii) the aggregate properties of the model cannot be analytically understood. The first one calls for simulation-based estimation techniques; the second requires additional statistical testing in order to ensure that the simulated quantities are consistent estimators of the theoretical quantities. The possibly high number of parameters involved and the non-linearities in the theoretical quantities used for estimation add to the complexity of the problem. As these difficulties are also shared, though to a different extent, by DSGE models, we first look at the lessons that can be learned from this literature. We identify simulated minimum distance (SMD) as a practical approach to estimation of AB models, and we discuss the conditions which ensure consistency of SMD estimators in AB models.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.laboratoriorevelli.it/_pdf/wp130.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies in its series LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series with number 130.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:130
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Via Real Collegio, 30, 10024 Moncalieri (To)

Phone: +390116705000
Fax: +390116476847
Web page: http://www.laboratoriorevelli.it/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Manfred GILLI, & Peter WINKER, 2001. "Indirect Estimation of the Parameters of Agent Based Models of Financial Markets," FAME Research Paper Series rp38, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  2. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, 08.
  3. Paul Krugman, 2011. "The Profession and the Crisis," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 307-312.
  4. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, volume 2, number 2-a, May/June.
  5. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
  6. Manfred GILLI & Peter WINKER, . "A review of heuristic optimization methods in econometrics," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  8. Barbara R. Bergmann, 1974. "A Microsimulation of the Macroeconomy with Explicitly Represented Money Flows," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 3, pages 475-489 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Amilon, Henrik, 2005. "Estimation of an Adaptive Stock Market Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Working Paper Series 177, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2006. "Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 38-42.
  12. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 196, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Sven Banischa & Ricardo Lima & Tanya Araújo, 2012. "Agent based models and opinion dynamics as markov chains," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/10, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  14. Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  15. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  16. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
  17. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Poirier, Dale J., 1998. "Revising Beliefs In Nonidentified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(04), pages 483-509, August.
  19. Erol Taymaz & G, rard Ballot, 1997. "The dynamics of firms in a micro-to-macro model: The role of training, learning and innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 435-457.
  20. Annalisa Fabretti, 2013. "On the problem of calibrating an agent based model for financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(2), pages 277-293, October.
  21. Carlo Bianchi & Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati & Pietro Vagliasindi, 2007. "Validating and Calibrating Agent-Based Models: A Case Study," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 245-264, October.
  22. Steven Stern, 1997. "Simulation-Based Estimation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 2006-2039, December.
  23. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R, 1994. "An Introduction to Evolutionary Theories in Economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 153-72, September.
  24. Leombruni, Roberto & Richiardi, Matteo, 2005. "Why are economists sceptical about agent-based simulations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 103-109.
  25. Jacob Grazzini & Matteo Richiardi & Lisa Sella, 2012. "Indirect estimation of agent-based models.An application to a simple diffusion model," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 118, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  26. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
  27. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Cahiers de recherche 17-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  28. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De.
  29. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Working Papers 07/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  30. Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
  31. Franke, Reiner, 2009. "Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 804-815, December.
  32. Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2007. "An Objective Function for Simulation Based Inference on Exchange Rate Data," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-01, Swiss Finance Institute.
  33. Gérard Ballot & Erol Taymaz, 1999. "Technological Change, Learning and Macro-Economic Coordination: an Evolutionary Model," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 2(2), pages 3.
  34. LeBaron, Blake & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2008. "Modeling Macroeconomies As Open-Ended Dynamic Systems of Interacting Agents," Staff General Research Papers 12973, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  35. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
  36. Matteo Richiardi, 2007. "Agent-based Computational Economics. A Short Introduction," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 69, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  37. Jakob Grazzini, 2012. "Analysis of the Emergent Properties: Stationarity and Ergodicity," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(2), pages 7.
  38. Daniel O. Beltran & David Draper, 2008. "Estimating the parameters of a small open economy DSGE model: identifiability and inferential validity," International Finance Discussion Papers 955, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. Luis R. Izquierdo & Segismundo S. Izquierdo & José Manuel Galán & José Ignacio Santos, 2009. "Techniques to Understand Computer Simulations: Markov Chain Analysis," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 6.
  40. Michael Neugart & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2012. "Agent-based models of the labor market," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 125, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  41. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-93, May.
  42. Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati, 2012. "The Empirical Validation of an Agent-based Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 525-547.
  43. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  44. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, volume 2, number 2-b, May/June.
  45. Ballot, Gerard, 2002. "Modeling the labor market as an evolving institution: model ARTEMIS," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 51-77, September.
  46. Harold W. Watts, 1991. "Distinguished Fellow: An Appreciation of Guy Orcutt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 171-179, Winter.
  47. Weeks, Melvyn, 1995. "Circumventing the Curse of Dimensionality in Applied Work Using Computer Intensive Methods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 520-30, March.
  48. Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter.
  49. Bergmann, Barbara R, 1990. "Micro-to-Macro Simulation: A Primer with a Labor Market Example," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 99-116, Winter.
  50. Bianchi, Carlo & Cirillo, Pasquale & Gallegati, Mauro & Vagliasindi, Pietro A., 2008. "Validation in agent-based models: An investigation on the CATS model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 947-964, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giovanni Bert)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.