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Indirect Estimation of the Parameters of Agent Based Models of Financial Markets

  • Peter Winker and Manfred Gilli

Agent based models take into account limited rational behaviour of individuals acting on financial markets. Explicit simulation of this behaviour and the resulting interaction of individuals provide a description of aggregate financial market time series. At least for some parameter settings, the outcome of such simulations exhibit marked similarities with actual financial market time series. The goal of this paper is twofold. First, we compare simulation results of agent based models with observed time series based on characteristic moments like ARCH--effects or excess kurtosis. Second, we try to estimate the parameters of the agent based model from the observed data using a simulated indirect estimation method based on the characteristic moments. The paper presents details of this estimation approach and first results for the US/DM exchange rate.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 59.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:59
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html
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