IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cca/wplabo/141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The future of agent-based modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo G. Richiardi

Abstract

In this paper, I elaborate on the role of agent-based (AB) modelling for macroeconomic research. My main tenet is that the full potential of the AB approach has not been realised yet. This potential lies in the modular nature of the models, which is bought by abandoning the straitjacket of rational expectations and embracing an evolutionary perspective. I envisage the foundation of a Modular Macroeconomic Science, where new models with heterogeneous interacting agents, endowed with partial information and limited computational ability, can be created by recombining and extending existing models in a unified computational framework. This crucially requires the development of appropriate application programming interfaces (APIs), a set of routines, protocols, and tools which define functionalities internally used by the simulated agents (e.g. learning algorithms) or used by the agents to interact with other agents (exchange of information, goods and services) that are independent of their respective implementations.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo G. Richiardi, 2015. "The future of agent-based modelling," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 141, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.laboratoriorevelli.it/_pdf/wp141.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sinitskaya, Ekaterina & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2015. "Macroeconomies as constructively rational games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 152-182.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    3. Leigh Tesfatsion, 2011. "Agent-based Modeling and Institutional Design," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 13-19.
    4. Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2012. "The Impact Of Banks' Capital Adequacy Regulation On The Economic System: An Agent-Based Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-27.
    5. Mark Paddrik & Roy Hayes & William Scherer & Peter Beling, 2017. "Effects of limit order book information level on market stability metrics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 221-247, July.
    6. Alan Kirman, 2011. "Learning in Agent-based Models," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 20-27.
    7. Paul Krugman, 2011. "The Profession and the Crisis," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 307-312.
    8. Jakob Grazzini & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2013. "Consistent Estimation of Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 130, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    9. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "Booms and Busts in Economic Activity: A Behavioral Explanation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 19, pages 521-556, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Michael Neugart & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2012. "Agent-based models of the labor market," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 125, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    11. Li, Hongyan & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2012. "Co-learning patterns as emergent market phenomena: An electricity market illustration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 395-419.
    12. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How did we get to where we are now? Reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics," Discussion Papers 14/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    14. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2018. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: How Economics Should Be Done, chapter 14, pages 212-216, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Khramov, Vadim & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2015. "Solving and estimating indeterminate DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-36.
    16. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    17. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    18. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
    19. Alan Kirman, 2010. "The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 498-535, December.
    20. Matteo Richiardi & Roberto Leombruni & Nicole J. Saam & Michele Sonnessa, 2006. "A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15.
    21. John Geanakoplos & Robert Axtell & J. Doyne Farmer & Peter Howitt & Benjamin Conlee & Jonathan Goldstein & Matthew Hendrey & Nathan M. Palmer & Chun-Yi Yang, 2012. "Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 53-58, May.
    22. Leombruni, Roberto & Richiardi, Matteo, 2005. "Why are economists sceptical about agent-based simulations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 103-109.
    23. Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.
    24. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    25. Matteo Richiardi & Ross E. Richardson, 2017. "JAS-mine: A new platform for microsimulation and agent-based modelling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(1), pages 106-134.
    26. Joseph E Stiglitz & Mauro Gallegati, 2011. "Heterogeneous Interacting Agent Models for Understanding Monetary Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 6-12.
    27. Jacques Durieu & Philippe Solal, 2012. "Models of Adaptive Learning in Game Theory," Chapters, in: Richard Arena & Agnès Festré & Nathalie Lazaric (ed.), Handbook of Knowledge and Economics, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    28. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, May.
    29. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis Without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 303-346, May.
    30. Ascari, Guido & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2015. "Fat-Tail Distributions And Business-Cycle Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 465-476, March.
    31. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
    32. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013. "Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
    33. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, August.
    34. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-493, May.
    35. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2015. "Understanding the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 110-167, January.
    36. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    37. Vriend, Nicolaas J., 2000. "An illustration of the essential difference between individual and social learning, and its consequences for computational analyses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
    38. Hommes, Cars & Zeppini, Paolo, 2014. "Innovate or Imitate? Behavioural technological change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 308-324.
    39. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978.
    40. S. Dellavigna., 2011. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    41. Weisbuch, Gérard & Battiston, Stefano, 2007. "From production networks to geographical economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(3-4), pages 448-469.
    42. David Colander, 2005. "The future of economics: the appropriately educated in pursuit of the knowable," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 927-941, November.
    43. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    44. Richard Arena & Agnès Festré & Nathalie Lazaric, 2012. "Handbook of Knowledge and Economics," Post-Print halshs-00721485, HAL.
    45. Dawid, H. & Harting, P. & Neugart, M., 2014. "Economic convergence: Policy implications from a heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 54-80.
    46. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Learning and Macroeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, May.
    47. Markus Mobius & Tanya Rosenblat, 2014. "Social Learning in Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 827-847, August.
    48. Paolo Tasca & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Diversification and Financial Stability," Working Papers CCSS-11-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    49. J. Doyne Farmer & Duncan Foley, 2009. "The economy needs agent-based modelling," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 685-686, August.
    50. Ballot, Gerard & Taymaz, Erol, 2001. "Training policies and economic growth in an evolutionary world," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-329, September.
    51. Colander,David (ed.), 2006. "Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521865487.
    52. Matteo Richiardi, 2007. "Agent-based Computational Economics. A Short Introduction," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 69, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    53. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
    54. Herbert Gintis, 2007. "The Dynamics of General Equilibrium," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1280-1309, October.
    55. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2013. "The anatomy of standard DSGE models with financial frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 32-51.
    56. Battiston, Stefano & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 138-149.
    57. Colander,David (ed.), 2006. "Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521684200.
    58. Freeman, Richard B., 1998. "War of the models: Which labour market institutions for the 21st century?1," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, March.
    59. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    60. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.
    61. Blake LeBaron & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2008. "Modeling Macroeconomies as Open-Ended Dynamic Systems of Interacting Agents," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 246-250, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silvano Cincotti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio, 2022. "Why do we need agent-based macroeconomics?," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    2. Sylvain Barde & Sander van der Hoog, 2017. "An empirical validation protocol for large-scale agent-based models," Working Papers hal-03458672, HAL.
    3. Skardaa, Ieva & Asaria, Miqdad & Cookson, Richard, 2022. "Evaluating childhood policy impacts on lifetime health, wellbeing and inequality: lifecourse distributional economic evaluation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114575, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Hepburn, Cameron & Mealy, Penny, 2017. "Transformational Change: Parallels for addressing climate and development goals," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised May 2019.
    5. Bauermann, Tom & Roos, Michael W. M. & Schaff, Frederik, 2020. "POSA: Policy implementation sensitivity analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 854, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Bulent Ozel & Reynold Christian Nathanael & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(1), pages 7-46, March.
    7. Gunnar Eliasson, 2018. "Why Complex, Data Demanding and Difficult to Estimate Agent Based Models? Lessons from a Decades Long Research Program," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 4-60.
    8. Skarda, Ieva & Asaria, Miqdad & Cookson, Richard, 2022. "Evaluating childhood policy impacts on lifetime health, wellbeing and inequality: Lifecourse distributional economic evaluation," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2016. "Macroeconomic Policy in DGSE and Agent-Based Models Redux," Working Papers hal-03459348, HAL.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    4. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
    5. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    6. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    7. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    8. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    10. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.
    12. Delli Gatti,Domenico & Fagiolo,Giorgio & Gallegati,Mauro & Richiardi,Matteo & Russo,Alberto (ed.), 2018. "Agent-Based Models in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108400046.
    13. Özge Dilaver & Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2018. "Agent‐Based Macroeconomics And Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models: Where Do We Go From Here?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1134-1159, September.
    14. Francesco Lamperti & Antoine Mandel & Mauro Napoletano & Alessandro Sapio & Andrea Roventini & Tomas Balint & Igor Khorenzhenko, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03399574, HAL.
    15. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2016. "The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Martin Guzman (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 79-100, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Jakob Grazzini & Matteo G. Richiardi, 2013. "Consistent Estimation of Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 130, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    17. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Mandel, Antoine & Landini, Simone & Gallegati, Mauro & Gintis, Herbert, 2015. "Price dynamics, financial fragility and aggregate volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 257-277.
    19. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fccaait.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giovanni Bert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fccaait.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.