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Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies

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  • Poledna, Sebastian
  • Thurner, Stefan
  • Farmer, J. Doyne
  • Geanakoplos, John

Abstract

We use a simple agent based model of value investors in financial markets to test three credit regulation policies. The first is the unregulated case, which only imposes limits on maximum leverage. The second is Basle II and the third is a hypothetical alternative in which banks perfectly hedge all of their leverage-induced risk with options. When compared to the unregulated case both Basle II and the perfect hedge policy reduce the risk of default when leverage is low but increase it when leverage is high. This is because both regulation policies increase the amount of synchronized buying and selling needed to achieve deleveraging, which can destabilize the market. None of these policies are optimal for everyone: risk neutral investors prefer the unregulated case with low maximum leverage, banks prefer the perfect hedge policy, and fund managers prefer the unregulated case with high maximum leverage. No one prefers Basle II.

Suggested Citation

  • Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:199-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.01.038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    3. Naji Massad & J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen, 2019. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Papers 1902.10800, arXiv.org.
    4. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Girogos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2017. "Heterogeneity and Clustering of Defaults," Economic Research Papers 270011, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    5. Naji Massad & Jørgen-Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01673333, HAL.
    6. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    7. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    8. repec:eee:dyncon:v:100:y:2019:i:c:p:176-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Aymanns, Christoph & Georg, Co-Pierre, 2015. "Contagious synchronization and endogenous network formation in financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 273-285.
    10. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Giorgos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2015. "Heterogeneity and Clustering of Defaults," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1083, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide, 2015. "The impact of systemic and illiquidity risk on financing with risky collateral," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 180-202.
    12. Klimek, Peter & Poledna, Sebastian & Doyne Farmer, J. & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-154.
    13. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    14. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Giorgos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2015. "Hedging against Risk in a Heterogeneous Leveraged Market," Economic Research Papers 270010, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    15. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17059, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    16. Piero Mazzarisi & Fabrizio Lillo & Stefano Marmi, 2018. "When panic makes you blind: a chaotic route to systemic risk," Papers 1805.00785, arXiv.org.
    17. Matteo G. Richiardi, 2017. "The Future of Agent-Based Modeling," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 271-287, March.
    18. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p:104-:d:171293 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2018. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01951164, HAL.
    20. repec:ksa:szemle:1694 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Giorgos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2015. "Hedging against Risk in a Heterogeneous Leveraged Market," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1084, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    22. Lilit Popoyan & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," LEM Papers Series 2019/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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