IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bamber/88.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agent-based models for economic policy design: Two illustrative examples

Author

Listed:
  • Westerhoff, Frank
  • Franke, Reiner

Abstract

With the help of two examples, we illustrate the usefulness of agent-based models as a tool for economic policy design. In our first example, we apply a financial market model in which the order flow of speculators, relying on technical and fundamental analysis, generates intricate price dynamics. In our second example, we apply a Keynesian-type goods market model in which the investment behavior of firms, relying on extrapolative and regressive predictors, generates complex business cycles. We add a central authority to these two setups and explore the impact of simple intervention strategies on the model dynamics. Based on these experiments, we conclude that agent-based models may help us to understand how markets function and to evaluate the effectiveness of various stabilization policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Westerhoff, Frank & Franke, Reiner, 2012. "Agent-based models for economic policy design: Two illustrative examples," BERG Working Paper Series 88, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/66136/1/729497356.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, pages 850-863.
    3. J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Research on Complexity," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3625, April.
    4. Yeh, Chia-Hsuan & Yang, Chun-Yi, 2010. "Examining the effectiveness of price limits in an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2089-2108, October.
    5. Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2013. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: a synthesis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, April.
    6. Anufriev, M. & Tuinstra, J., 2010. "The impact of short-selling constraints on financial market stability in a model with heterogeneous agents," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    7. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
    8. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1577-1596.
    9. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
    10. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    11. Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2010. "Consumer sentiment and countercyclical fiscal policies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 609-618.
    12. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
    13. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
    14. Anufriev, Mikhail & Assenza, Tiziana & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Interest Rate Rules And Macroeconomic Stability Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(08), pages 1574-1604, December.
    15. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    16. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), pages 493-513.
    17. Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-508, December.
    18. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    19. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
    20. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    21. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    22. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
    23. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Business Cycles in Asymmetric Currency Unions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201501, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    2. Ricetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2013. "Unemployment benefits and financial leverage in an agent based macroeconomic model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-44.
    3. Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 305-332, October.
    4. Herold, Florian & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2016. "The evolution of taking roles," BERG Working Paper Series 115, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    5. Meyer, Dietmar & Shera, Adela, 2015. "Remittances' impact on the labor supply and on the deficit of current account," BERG Working Paper Series 97, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    6. Lojak, Benjamin, 2016. "Sentiment-driven investment, non-linear corporate debt dynamics and co-existing business cycle regimes," BERG Working Paper Series 112, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Evolutionary competition and profit taxes: market stability versus tax burden," BERG Working Paper Series 104, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    8. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Herding behavior and volatility clustering in financial markets," BERG Working Paper Series 107, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    9. Schmitt, Noemi & Tuinstra, Jan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "Side effects of nonlinear profit taxes in an evolutionary market entry model: Abrupt changes, coexisting attractors and hysteresis problems," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 15-38.
    10. March, Christoph & Sahm, Marco, 2017. "Asymmetric discouragement in asymmetric contests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 23-27.
    11. Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.
    12. Fatoke Dato, Mafaizath A., 2015. "Impact of income shock on children’s schooling and labor in a West African country," MPRA Paper 64317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Fatoke-Dato, Mafaïzath A., 2015. "Impact of an educational demand-and-supply policy on girls' education in West Africa: Heterogeneity in income, school environment and ethnicity," BERG Working Paper Series 101, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    14. González-Díaz, Julio & Herold, Florian & Domínguez, Diego, 2016. "Strategic sequential voting," BERG Working Paper Series 113, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    15. Bexheti, Abdylmenaf & Mustafi, Besime, 2015. "Impact of public funding of education on economic growth in Macedonia," BERG Working Paper Series 98, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    16. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2017. "Analyzing Structural Reforms Using a Behavioral Macroeconomic Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 6518, CESifo Group Munich.
    17. Sahm, Marco, 2017. "Are sequential round-robin tournaments discriminatory?," BERG Working Paper Series 121, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    18. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2015. "Debt stabilization and macroeconomic volatility in monetary unions under heterogeneous sovereign risk perceptions," BERG Working Paper Series 106, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    19. Sahm, Marco, 2016. "Advance-purchase financing of projects with few buyers," BERG Working Paper Series 118, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    20. Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Mauro, Gallegati, 2013. "Financial Regulation in an Agent Based Macroeconomic Model," MPRA Paper 51013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Sahm, Marco, 2017. "Risk aversion and prudence in contests," BERG Working Paper Series 120, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based models; Economic policy design; Financial markets; Goods markets; Simulation analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bebamde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.