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On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion: Empirical evidence and theoretical explanations

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  • Schmitt, Noemi
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agent-based financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators apply technical and fundamental analysis to predict asset prices. Since destabilizing technical trading dominates the market near the fundamental value, asset prices tend to be either overvalued or undervalued. Interestingly, the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion confirms an implicit prediction of a number of seminal agent-based financial market models.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion: Empirical evidence and theoretical explanations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 34-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:34-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.05.002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2019. "Trend followers, contrarians and fundamentalists: Explaining the dynamics of financial markets," BERG Working Paper Series 151, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. Goldbaum, David, 2017. "Divergent Behavior in Markets with Idiosyncratic Private Information," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 181-213, September.
    3. Adam Majewski & Stefano Ciliberti & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2018. "Co-existence of Trend and Value in Financial Markets: Estimating an Extended Chiarella Model," Papers 1807.11751, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market dynamics; Bubbles and crashes; Chartists and fundamentalists; Nonlinear dynamics; Bimodality tests; Time series analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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