Who Does a Currency Transaction Tax Harm More: Short-Term Speculators or Long-Term Investors?
We propose a novel heterogeneous interacting agents model in which traders are allowed to select endogenously between two different forecasting models and are moreover allowed to be short-term speculators or long-term investors. Within this model framework we study the effects of currency transaction taxes on exchange rate volatility and traders’ behavior measured by their population fractions. The numerical analysis yields the result that these taxes reduce the variance of exchange rate returns, but increase that kurtosis. Moreover it does not lead to a reduction in the misalignment. The second result is, the tax harms short-term speculation in favor or long-term investments, while it also harms trading rules based on economic fundamentals in favor to trend-extrapolating trading rules. But these results are only valid if agents trade very aggressively. Otherwise taxation is not necessary.
Volume (Year): 228 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2+3 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (0)641 99 22 001
Fax: +49 (0)641 99 22 009
Web page: http://wiwi.uni-giessen.de/home/oekonometrie/Jahrbuecher/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Vigfusson, Robert, 1997.
"Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
- Vigfusson, R., 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Working Papers 96-1, Bank of Canada.
- Robert Vigfusson, 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Finance 9602003, EconWPA.
- James Tobin, 1978.
"A Proposal for International Monetary Reform,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Mannaro, Katiuscia & Marchesi, Michele & Setzu, Alessio, 2008. "Using an artificial financial market for assessing the impact of Tobin-like transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 445-462, August.
- Frank Westerhoff, 2004.
"The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2004
14, Society for Computational Economics.
- Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1996.
"How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?,"
NBER Working Papers
5422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Frankel., 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-058, University of California at Berkeley.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
- Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
- Reitz, Stefan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2003.
"Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2003/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
- Rama Cont & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 1997. "Herd behavior and aggregate fluctuations in financial markets," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500028, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- G. Ehrenstein & F. Westerhoff & D. Stauffer, 2003.
"Tobin tax and market depth,"
- Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005.
"Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Frank Westerhoff, 2003.
"Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, 02.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
- Carl Chiarella & Tony He, 2002.
"An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
135, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2002. "An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies," Research Paper Series 84, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 170-196, June.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Ginestra Bianconi & Tobias Galla & Matteo Marsili, 2006. "Effects of Tobin Taxes in Minority Game markets," Papers cond-mat/0603134, arXiv.org.
- Thomas Palley, 1999. "Speculation and Tobin taxes: Why sand in the wheels can increase economic efficiency," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 113-126, June.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:228:y:2008:i:2-3:p:228-250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Winker)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.