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An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies

This paper develops an adaptive model on asset pricing and wealth dynamic of a financial market with heterogeneous agents and examines the profitability of momentum and contrarian trading strategies. In order to characterize asset price, wealth dynamics and rational adaptiveness arising from the interaction of heterogeneous agents with CRRA utility, an adaptive discrete time equilibrium model in terms of return ad wealth proportions (among heterogeneous representative agents) is established. Taking trend followers and contrarians as the main hetergeneous agents in the model, the profitability of momentum and contrarian trading strategies is analyzed. Our results show the capability of the model to characterize some of the existing evidence on many of anomailies observed in financial markets, including the profitability of momentum trading strategies over short time intervals, rational adaptiveness of agents, overconfidence and underreaction, overreaction and herd behavior, excess volatility, and volatility clustering.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp84.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 84.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:84
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Web page: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/

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  1. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
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  4. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
  5. Hommes, C.H., 2000. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
  7. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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  9. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, . "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," CRSP working papers 480, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  10. J. Doyne Farmer, 1999. "Physicists Attempt to Scale the Ivory Towers of Finance," Working Papers 99-10-073, Santa Fe Institute.
  11. Hirshleifer, David, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 5300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  13. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
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  17. K. Rouwenhorst, 1996. "International Momentum Strategies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm36, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2008.
  18. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  19. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  20. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  21. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
  22. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  23. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  25. J. Doyne Farmer & Andrew W. Lo, 1999. "Frontiers of Finance: Evolution and Efficient Markets," Working Papers 99-06-039, Santa Fe Institute.
  26. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  27. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  28. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, 04.
  29. Reiner Franke & Tim Nesemann, 1999. "Two destabilizing strategies may be jointly stabilizing," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 1-18, February.
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