Frontiers of Finance: Evolution and Efficient Markets
In this review article, we explore several recent advances in the quantitative modeling of financial markets. We begin with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and describe how this controversial idea has stimulated a number of new directions of research, some focusing on more elaborate mathematical models that are capable of rationalizing the empirical facts, others taking a completely different tack in rejecting rationality altogether. One of the most promising directions is to view financial markets from a biological perspective and, specifically, within an evolutionary framework in which markets, instruments, institutions, and investors interact and evolve dynamically according to the "law" of economic selection. Under this view, financial agents compete and adapt, but they do not necessarily do so in an optimal fashion. Evolutionary and ecological models of financial markets is truly a new frontier whose exploration has just begun. Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 96(1999) 9991-9992.
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|Date of creation:||Jun 1999|
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- W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996.
"Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market,"
96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
- Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979.
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Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
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- J. Doyne Farmer, 2002.
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Industrial and Corporate Change,
Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
- Friedman, Daniel, 1991. "Evolutionary Games in Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 637-66, May.
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