IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: the impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment

Author Info

  • Jiri Kukacka
  • Jozef Barunik

Abstract

The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through the so-called `Break Point Date', which allows us to examine their direct impact. In particular, we analyse the dynamics of the model around the behavioural break. Price behaviour of 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents covering five particularly turbulent U.S. stock market periods reveals interesting pattern in this aspect. To replicate it, we apply numerical analysis using the Heterogeneous Agent Model extended with the selected findings from behavioural finance: herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment. We show that these behavioural breaks can be well modelled via the Heterogeneous Agent Model framework and they extend the original model considerably. Various modifications lead to significantly different results and model with behavioural breaks is also able to partially replicate price behaviour found in the data during turbulent stock market periods.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.3763
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1205.3763.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision: May 2013
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.3763
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  2. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2004. "Greed, fear and stock market dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 635-642.
  3. Liu, Xinghua & Gregor, Shirley & Yang, Jianmei, 2008. "The effects of behavioral and structural assumptions in artificial stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2535-2546.
  4. Giuseppe Garofalo & Alessandro Sansone, 2006. "Asset Price Dynamics in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies and Time Delays," Papers physics/0607276, arXiv.org.
  5. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
  6. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.
  7. Diks, C.G.H. & Weide, R. van der, 2003. "Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  8. Schütz, Gunter M. & de Almeida Prado, Fernando Pigeard & Harris, Rosemary J. & Belitsky, Vladimir, 2009. "Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(19), pages 4126-4144.
  9. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
  10. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  11. Kaizoji, Taisei & Bornholdt, Stefan & Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2002. "Dynamics of price and trading volume in a spin model of stock markets with heterogeneous agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 441-452.
  12. Ferreira, Fernando F. & de Oliveira, Viviane M. & Crepaldi, Antônio F. & Campos, Paulo R.A., 2005. "Agent-based model with heterogeneous fundamental prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 357(3), pages 534-542.
  13. Hirshleifer, David, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 5300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
  15. William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Equity Portfolio Diversification," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 433-463.
  16. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  17. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2009. "Behavioural heterogeneity and shift-contagion: Evidence from the Asian crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1929-1944, November.
  18. Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Zeppini, Paolo, 2013. "More memory under evolutionary learning may lead to chaos," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(4), pages 808-812.
  19. Chang, Sheng-Kai, 2007. "A simple asset pricing model with social interactions and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1300-1325, April.
  20. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  21. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
  22. Lamba, H. & Seaman, T., 2008. "Rational expectations, psychology and inductive learning via moving thresholds," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3904-3909.
  23. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Zhu, Mei & Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Wang, Duo, 2009. "Does the market maker stabilize the market?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(15), pages 3164-3180.
  25. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2009. "Smart predictors in the heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 163-172, November.
  26. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  27. Dong, Linrong, 2007. "Market behaviors and dynamic evolution on heterogeneous agent clusters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 573-578.
  28. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  29. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2002. "An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies," Research Paper Series 84, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  30. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  31. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
  32. Gunter M. Sch\"utz & Fernando Pigeard de Almeida Prado & Rosemary J. Harris & Vladimir Belitsky, 2007. "Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents," Papers 0801.0003, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2009.
  33. Vacha, Lukas & Barunik, Jozef & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2012. "How do skilled traders change the structure of the market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 66-71.
  34. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1307, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  35. Lukáš Vácha & Jozef Barunik & Miloslav Vošvrda, 2009. "Smart Agents and Sentiment in the Heterogeneous Agent Model," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2009(3), pages 209-219.
  36. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  37. Thorsten Lehnert & Bart Frijns & Remco Zwinkels, 2009. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in the Option Market," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-07, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  38. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04.
  39. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  40. Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin, 2003. "Emergence of heterogeneity in an agent-based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 311-316.
  41. Carl Chiarella & Mauro Gallegati & Roberto Leombruni & Antonio Palestrini, 2003. "Asset Price Dynamics among Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 213-223, October.
  42. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  43. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
  44. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  45. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
  46. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
  47. Shimokawa, Tetsuya & Suzuki, Kyoko & Misawa, Tadanobu, 2007. "An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 207-225.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as in new window


Cited by:

  1. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2013. "What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary," Papers 1312.7460, arXiv.org.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.3763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.