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Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: the impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment

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  • Jiri Kukacka
  • Jozef Barunik

Abstract

The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through the so-called `Break Point Date', which allows us to examine their direct impact. In particular, we analyse the dynamics of the model around the behavioural break. Price behaviour of 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents covering five particularly turbulent U.S. stock market periods reveals interesting pattern in this aspect. To replicate it, we apply numerical analysis using the Heterogeneous Agent Model extended with the selected findings from behavioural finance: herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment. We show that these behavioural breaks can be well modelled via the Heterogeneous Agent Model framework and they extend the original model considerably. Various modifications lead to significantly different results and model with behavioural breaks is also able to partially replicate price behaviour found in the data during turbulent stock market periods.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.3763
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1205.3763.

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Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision: May 2013
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1205.3763
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Cited by:

  1. M. Fern\'andez-Mart\'inez & M. A S\'anchez-Granero & Mar\'ia Jos\'e Mu\~noz Torrecillas & Bill McKelvey, 2016. "A comparison among some Hurst exponent approaches to predict nascent bubbles in $500$ company stocks," Papers 1601.04188, arXiv.org.
  2. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2013. "What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary," Papers 1312.7460, arXiv.org.

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