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Greed, fear and stock market dynamics

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  • Westerhoff, Frank H.

Abstract

We present a behavioral stock market model in which traders are driven by greed and fear. In general, the agents optimistically believe in rising markets and thus buy stocks. But if stock prices change too abruptly, they panic and sell stocks. Our model mimics some stylized facts of stock market dynamics: (1) stock prices increase over time, (2) stock markets sometimes crash, (3) stock prices show little pair correlation between successive daily changes, and (4) periods of low volatility alternate with periods of high volatility. A strong feature of the model is that stock prices completely evolve according to a deterministic low-dimensional nonlinear law of motion.

Suggested Citation

  • Westerhoff, Frank H., 2004. "Greed, fear and stock market dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 635-642.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:343:y:2004:i:c:p:635-642
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.06.059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. Frank Westerhoff, 2003. "Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, February.
    3. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    4. G. Ehrenstein & F. Westerhoff & D. Stauffer, 2005. "Tobin tax and market depth," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 213-218.
    5. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    6. Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 170-196, June.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    9. Johnson, Neil F. & Jefferies, Paul & Hui, Pak Ming, 2003. "Financial Market Complexity," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198526650.
    10. Gudrun Ehrenstein, 2002. "Cont-Bouchaud percolation model including Tobin tax," Papers cond-mat/0205320, arXiv.org.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sansone, Alessandro & Garofalo, Giuseppe, 2007. "Asset price dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous trading strategies and time delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 247-257.
    2. repec:eee:riibaf:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:459-470 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fujita, Yasunori, 2007. "Toward a new modeling of international economics: An attempt to reformulate an international trade model based on real option theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(2), pages 507-512.
    4. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2013. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: The impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5920-5938.
    5. Ahmad K. Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2014. "Complexity with Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and a Multiplicative Price Mechanism," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 43(3), pages 233-247, November.
    6. Zhu, Mei & Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Wang, Duo, 2009. "Does the market maker stabilize the market?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(15), pages 3164-3180.

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