IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/decisn/v45y2018i3d10.1007_s40622-018-0185-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overconfidence, trading volume and liquidity effect in Asia’s Giants: evidence from pre-, during- and post-global recession

Author

Listed:
  • Suman Gupta

    (Indian Institute of Management Raipur)

  • Vinay Goyal

    (Indian Institute of Management Raipur)

  • Vinay Kumar Kalakbandi

    (Institute of Management Technology Hyderabad)

  • Sankarshan Basu

    (Indian Institute of Management)

Abstract

In this paper, we present evidence in favour of the overconfidence bias and its persistence in pre-, during and post-global recession sub-samples in China and India. The Chinese and Indian investors follow past market returns for the longer duration and trade excessively, which is posited as overconfidence bias. The global recession is facilitated as a structural break to examine the endurance of the overconfident trading activities. The Chinese investors are found to be more overconfident than the Indian investors in each sub-sample. We also explore that the Chinese and Indian investors are more overconfident in up than in down market states and overconfident trading behaviour of the Chinese investors is more than that of the Indian investors in both market states. The endogenous structure of vector autoregression also considers liquidity as one of the drivers of overconfident trading behaviour. Besides trading volume, market liquidity also follows market returns for a short duration, but not vice versa. The lead–lag relationship of volume–volatility and liquidity–volatility is also explored by considering volatility as the exogenous variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Suman Gupta & Vinay Goyal & Vinay Kumar Kalakbandi & Sankarshan Basu, 2018. "Overconfidence, trading volume and liquidity effect in Asia’s Giants: evidence from pre-, during- and post-global recession," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(3), pages 235-257, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decisn:v:45:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s40622-018-0185-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s40622-018-0185-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40622-018-0185-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40622-018-0185-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Woon Gyu Choi & David Cook, 2006. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 309-335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. Chip Heath & Steven Huddart & Mark Lang, 1999. "Psychological Factors and Stock Option Exercise," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 601-627.
    5. Anirut Pisedtasalasai & Abeyratna Gunasekarage, 2007. "Causal and Dynamic Relationships among Stock Returns, Return Volatility and Trading Volume: Evidence from Emerging markets in South-East Asia," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 277-297, December.
    6. Jun, Sang-Gyung & Marathe, Achla & Shawky, Hany A., 2003. "Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, March.
    7. repec:bla:jecsur:v:13:y:1999:i:5:p:551-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    9. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    10. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2003. "Disposition Matters: Volume, Volatility and Price Impact of a Behavioral Bias," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm333, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2005.
    11. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    12. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2007. "Do Investors Trade More When Stocks Have Performed Well? Evidence from 46 Countries," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 905-951.
    13. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Liquidity and Financial Market Runs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 135-158.
    14. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    15. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    16. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    17. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    18. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2013. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: The impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5920-5938.
    19. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Jih-Jeng & Chen, Yu-Hao, 2016. "The overconfident trading behavior of individual versus institutional investors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 518-539.
    20. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    21. Wen-I Chuang & Bong-Soo Lee & Kai-Li Wang, 2014. "US and Domestic Market Gains and Asian Investors’ Overconfident Trading Behavior," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 113-148, March.
    22. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    23. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    26. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    27. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 2000. "Trading Volume: Definitions, Data Analysis, and Implications of Portfolio Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 257-300.
    28. Gupta, Suman & Das, Debojyoti & Hasim, Haslifah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume revisited: A MODWT-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 91-98.
    29. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross‐Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    30. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 533-576, September.
    31. Allaudeen Hameed & Wenjin Kang & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Stock Market Declines and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 257-293, February.
    32. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    33. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
    34. Reza Mahani & Dan Bernhardt, 2007. "Financial Speculators' Underperformance: Learning, Self‐Selection, and Endogenous Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1313-1340, June.
    35. Jungshik Hur & Mahesh Pritamani & Vivek Sharma, 2010. "Momentum and the Disposition Effect: The Role of Individual Investors," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1155-1176, September.
    36. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    37. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    38. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Estimation of TAR Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 325., Boston College Department of Economics.
    39. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    40. Kathryn Kadous & William B. Tayler & Jane M. Thayer & Donald Young, 2014. "Individual Characteristics and the Disposition Effect: The Opposing Effects of Confidence and Self-Regard," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 235-250, July.
    41. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    43. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
    44. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1781-1788.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiayu Huang & Yifan Wang & Yaojun Fan & Hexuan Li, 2022. "Gauging the effect of investor overconfidence on trading volume from the perspective of the relationship between lagged stock returns and current trading volume," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 103-123, April.
    2. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2020. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Activity in the Asia Pacific REIT Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Jih-Jeng & Chen, Yu-Hao, 2016. "The overconfident trading behavior of individual versus institutional investors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 518-539.
    3. Qingjing Zhang & Taufiq Choudhry & Jing-Ming Kuo & Xiaoquan Liu, 2021. "Does liquidity drive stock market returns? The role of investor risk aversion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 929-958, October.
    4. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
    6. Chuang, Wen-I & Susmel, Rauli, 2011. "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1626-1644, July.
    7. Wang, Zijun & Qian, Yan & Wang, Shiwen, 2018. "Dynamic trading volume and stock return relation: Does it hold out of sample?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 195-210.
    8. Wen-I Chuang & Bong-Soo Lee & Kai-Li Wang, 2014. "US and Domestic Market Gains and Asian Investors’ Overconfident Trading Behavior," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 113-148, March.
    9. Soleman Alsabban & Omar Alarfaj, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Behavioral Finance in the Saudi Stock Market: Evidence of Overconfidence Behavior," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 73-86.
    10. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
    11. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    12. Chou, Robin K. & Wang, Yun-Yi, 2011. "A test of the different implications of the overconfidence and disposition hypotheses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2037-2046, August.
    13. Jaya M. Prosad & Sujata Kapoor & Jhumur Sengupta & Saurav Roychoudhary, 2017. "Overconfidence and Disposition Effect in Indian Equity Market: An Empirical Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1303-1321, October.
    14. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11681 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Qiang Chen & Yu Han & Ying Huang, 2024. "Market‐wide overconfidence and stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 3-26, January.
    17. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    18. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    19. Gupta, Suman & Das, Debojyoti & Hasim, Haslifah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume revisited: A MODWT-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 91-98.
    20. Zaiane Salma & Abaoub Ezzeddine, 2008. "Overconfidence And Trading Volume: Evidence From An Emergent Market," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 1-41.
    21. Bartosz Gębka, 2012. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns, Trading Volume, And Volatility: Lessons From Spillovers Between Asia And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 65-90, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; Liquidity; Global Recession; Vector autoregression; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:decisn:v:45:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s40622-018-0185-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.