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Market‐wide overconfidence and stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Chen
  • Yu Han
  • Ying Huang

Abstract

In this paper, a novel measurement of overconfidence over the market is developed based on the size of ambiguity (the confidence of investors in information). The proposed measure of market‐wide overconfidence is consistent with the predictions motivated by prior literature. It has a significant negative association with the next‐month market excess return. Associations between the overconfidence measure and riskier portfolio returns behave stronger and last longer, implying a risk‐taking proclivity of overconfident investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Chen & Yu Han & Ying Huang, 2024. "Market‐wide overconfidence and stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 3-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:1:p:3-26
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22462
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