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The overconfidence of investors in the primary market

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  • Hsu, Yenshan
  • Shiu, Cheng-Yi

Abstract

We analyze the investment performance of 6993 investors bidding in 77 discriminatory IPO auctions in the Taiwan stock market between January 1996 and April 2000, and find that frequent bidders in these auctions have lower returns than infrequent bidders. The frequent bidders bid too aggressively and evaluate the IPO firms too optimistically, resulting in inferior performance. Despite being quite successful in their first few auction bids, the returns for frequent investors are gradually reduced in subsequent auctions. The multivariate model and the analysis of the possibility of perverse incentives of brokerage firms suggest that our findings cannot be explained by rational hypotheses, whereas in contrast, the theories on overconfidence and self-attribution bias can explain the increase in bidding frequency and the deterioration in return performance for bidders in IPO auctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Yenshan & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2010. "The overconfidence of investors in the primary market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 217-239, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:18:y:2010:i:2:p:217-239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chih-Hsiang Chang & Shan-Shan Chen & Song-Lin Hsieh, 2017. "Asymmetric Reinforcement Learning and Conditioned Responses During the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-44, June.
    3. Ali Shaddady & Mohammed Alsaggaf, 2020. "Issues that Matter When Behavioral Finance Factors Drive the Largest Initial Public Offering in the Saudi Financial Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 106-117.

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