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Prior Consequences and Subsequent Risk Taking: New Field Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange

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  • Yu-Jane Liu

    () (Department of Finance, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, People's Republic of China)

  • Chih-Ling Tsai

    () (Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 95616)

  • Ming-Chun Wang

    () (National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 81164, Taiwan)

  • Ning Zhu

    () (Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 95616; and Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China)

Abstract

We use a data set from market participants in the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index options markets to demonstrate a strong positive relationship between prior trading outcomes and subsequent risk taking. In particular, investors in this market take above-average risks in afternoon trading after morning gains. The phenomenon is prevalent in all three types of market makers' accounts and across different types of market participants. Our findings are consistent with the argument that prior outcomes affect subsequent risk taking through a relationship that is sensitive to the model parameters (i.e., expected return, trading period, and curvature of the value function), because prospect theory can predict both increased and decreased levels of subsequent risk taking. We provide possible explanations behind the phenomenon and discuss reasons for the variety of findings in the existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Jane Liu & Chih-Ling Tsai & Ming-Chun Wang & Ning Zhu, 2010. "Prior Consequences and Subsequent Risk Taking: New Field Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(4), pages 606-620, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:56:y:2010:i:4:p:606-620
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
    2. Duxbury, Darren & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin & Yang, Zhishu & Yao, Songyao, 2015. "Do the disposition and house money effects coexist? A reconciliation of two behavioral biases using individual investor-level data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 55-68.
    3. Pikulina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Ter Horst, Jenke & Tobler, Philippe N., 2014. "Bonus schemes and trading activity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 369-389.
    4. Kremena Bachmann & Thorsten Hens, 2016. "Is there Swissness in investment decision behavior and investment competence?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(3), pages 233-275, August.
    5. Chou, Robin K. & Wang, Yun-Yi, 2011. "A test of the different implications of the overconfidence and disposition hypotheses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2037-2046, August.
    6. Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2017. " When do reference points update? A field analysis of the effect of prior gains and losses on risk-taking over time," Working Papers 369, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    7. Desmond Lam & Bernadete Ozorio, 2013. "The effect of prior outcomes on gender risk-taking differences," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 791-802, August.
    8. Huang, Yu Chuan & Chan, Shu Hui, 2014. "The house money and break-even effects for different types of traders: Evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Noman, Abdullah & Naka, Atsuyuki & Zirek, Duygu, 2017. "Examining return predictability of industry style portfolios with prior return relative to a benchmark," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 193-203.
    10. Hsu, Yuan-Lin & Chow, Edward H., 2013. "The house money effect on investment risk taking: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1102-1115.

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