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Prior Consequences and Subsequent Risk Taking: New Field Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange

Author Info

  • Yu-Jane Liu

    ()

    (Department of Finance, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, People's Republic of China)

  • Chih-Ling Tsai

    ()

    (Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 95616)

  • Ming-Chun Wang

    ()

    (National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 81164, Taiwan)

  • Ning Zhu

    ()

    (Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 95616; and Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Shanghai 200030, People's Republic of China)

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Abstract

We use a data set from market participants in the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index options markets to demonstrate a strong positive relationship between prior trading outcomes and subsequent risk taking. In particular, investors in this market take above-average risks in afternoon trading after morning gains. The phenomenon is prevalent in all three types of market makers' accounts and across different types of market participants. Our findings are consistent with the argument that prior outcomes affect subsequent risk taking through a relationship that is sensitive to the model parameters (i.e., expected return, trading period, and curvature of the value function), because prospect theory can predict both increased and decreased levels of subsequent risk taking. We provide possible explanations behind the phenomenon and discuss reasons for the variety of findings in the existing literature.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1131
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Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 56 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 606-620

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:56:y:2010:i:4:p:606-620
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Keywords: dynamic prospect theory; risk taking; market makers; options markets;

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  1. Keasey, Kevin & Moon, Philip, 1996. "Gambling with the house money in capital expenditure decisions: An experimental analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 105-110, January.
  2. Battalio, Raymond C & Kagel, John H & Jiranyakul, Komain, 1990. "Testing between Alternative Models of Choice under Uncertainty: Some Initial Results," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 25-50, March.
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  7. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
  8. Nicholas Barberis & Wei Xiong, 2009. "What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long-Standing Preference-Based Explanation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 751-784, 04.
  9. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Individual Preferences, Monetary Gambles, and Stock Market Participation: A Case for Narrow Framing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1069-1090, September.
  10. Chip Heath & Steven Huddart & Mark Lang, 1999. "Psychological Factors and Stock Option Exercise," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 601-627.
  11. Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
  12. Lucy Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan Church & Richard Deaves, 2006. "An experimental examination of the house money effect in a multi-period setting," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 5-16, April.
  13. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  14. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  15. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  16. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean & Ning Zhu, 2009. "Do Retail Trades Move Markets?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 151-186, January.
  17. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2005. "Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, 02.
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Cited by:

  1. Pikulina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Ter Horst, Jenke & Tobler, Philippe N., 2014. "Bonus schemes and trading activity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 369-389.
  2. Hsu, Yuan-Lin & Chow, Edward H., 2013. "The house money effect on investment risk taking: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1102-1115.
  3. Huang, Yu Chuan & Chan, Shu Hui, 2014. "The house money and break-even effects for different types of traders: Evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-13.
  4. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
  5. Duxbury, Darren & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin & Yang, Zhishu & Yao, Songyao, 2015. "Do the disposition and house money effects coexist? A reconciliation of two behavioral biases using individual investor-level data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 55-68.
  6. Desmond Lam & Bernadete Ozorio, 2013. "The effect of prior outcomes on gender risk-taking differences," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 791-802, August.
  7. Chou, Robin K. & Wang, Yun-Yi, 2011. "A test of the different implications of the overconfidence and disposition hypotheses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2037-2046, August.

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