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Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market

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  • Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira

Abstract

It is traditionally assumed in finance models that the fundamental value of assets is known with certainty. Although this is an appealing simplifying assumption it is by no means based on empirical evidence. A simple heterogeneous agent model of the exchange rate is presented. In the model, traders do not observe the true underlying fundamental exchange rate and as a consequence they base their trades on beliefs about this variable. Despite the fact that only fundamentalist traders operate in the market, the model belongs to the heterogeneous agent literature, as traders have different beliefs about the fundamental rate.

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  • Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:6:p:1215-1222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.11.012
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    1. Ahmad K. Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2014. "Complexity with Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and a Multiplicative Price Mechanism," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 43(3), pages 233-247, November.
    2. Naimzada, Ahmad & Pireddu, Marina, 2015. "Real and financial interacting markets: A behavioral macro-model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 111-131.
    3. Aki-Hiro Sato & Takaki Hayashi & Janusz A. Ho{l}yst, 2012. "Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market: Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix," Papers 1204.0426, arXiv.org.
    4. F. Cavalli & A. Naimzada & N. Pecora & M. Pireddu, 2021. "Market sentiment and heterogeneous agents in an evolutive financial model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1189-1219, September.
    5. Cavalli, Fausto & Naimzada, Ahmad & Pecora, Nicolò & Pireddu, Marina, 2018. "Market sentiment and heterogeneous fundamentalists in an evolutive financial market mode," MPRA Paper 90289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michele Gori & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2018. "A dynamic exchange rate model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 399-415, April.
    7. Aki-Hiro Sato & Takaki Hayashi & Janusz Hołyst, 2012. "Comprehensive analysis of market conditions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 7(2), pages 167-179, October.
    8. Giovanni Campisi & Silvia Muzzioli, 2020. "Investor sentiment and trading behavior," Department of Economics 0163, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    9. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2013. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: The impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5920-5938.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
    11. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

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