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Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market

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  • Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira

Abstract

It is traditionally assumed in finance models that the fundamental value of assets is known with certainty. Although this is an appealing simplifying assumption it is by no means based on empirical evidence. A simple heterogeneous agent model of the exchange rate is presented. In the model, traders do not observe the true underlying fundamental exchange rate and as a consequence they base their trades on beliefs about this variable. Despite the fact that only fundamentalist traders operate in the market, the model belongs to the heterogeneous agent literature, as traders have different beliefs about the fundamental rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:6:p:1215-1222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.11.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2013. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: The impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5920-5938.
    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
    3. Aki-Hiro Sato & Takaki Hayashi & Janusz A. Ho{l}yst, 2012. "Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market: Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix," Papers 1204.0426, arXiv.org.
    4. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

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