IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits

Listed author(s):
  • Ahmad Naimzada
  • Marina Pireddu

In this paper we propose a model in which the real side of the economy, described via a Keynesian good market approach, interacts with the stock market with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimist and pessimist fundamentalists. Employing analytical and numerical tools, we detect the mechanisms and the channels through which instabilities get transmitted between markets. In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”, which allows us to study the complete three-dimensional system by decomposing it into two subsystems, i.e., the isolated financial and real markets, easier to analyze, that are then interconnected through a parameter describing the interaction degree between the two markets. Next, we derive the stability conditions both for the isolated markets and for the whole system with interacting markets. Finally, we show how to apply the “interaction degree approach” to its role becomes more ambiguous when the markets are interconnected. However, our numerical simulations suggest that increasing the bias has generally a destabilizing effect. our model. To this aim, we first classify the possible scenarios according to the stability/instability of the isolated financial and real markets. For each of those frameworks we consider different possible parameter configurations and we show, both analytically and numerically, which are the effects of increasing the degree of interaction between the two markets. In particular, we find that the instability of the real market seems to have stronger destabilizing effects than the instability of the financial market: in fact, the former gets transmit- ted and possibly amplified by the connection with the financial market, while the latter gets dampened and possibly eliminated by the connection with the real market. We conclude our analysis by showing which are the effects of an increasing bias. Although it is clearly destabilizing when markets are isolated,

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dems.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper268.pdf
File Function: First version, 2014
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 268.

as
in new window

Length: 29
Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision: Feb 2014
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:268
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Piazza Ateneo Nuovo, 1 Milano 20126

Phone: +39 02 6448 3089
Fax: +39 02 6448 3085
Web page: http://dems.unimib.it
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  2. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June.
  3. Diks, Cees & Dindo, Pietro, 2008. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1432-1465, May.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
  5. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
  6. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2003. "Expectations driven distortions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 389-412, July.
  7. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2013. "Dynamic behavior of real and stock markets with a varying degree of interaction," Working Papers 245, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2013.
  8. Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2013. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: a synthesis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, April.
  9. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978, December.
  10. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
  11. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  12. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
  13. Charpe, Matthieu & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian, 2011. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: Fiscal and monetary policy, stocks, and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2129-2136, September.
  14. Ahmad Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2007. "Dynamic Effects of Increasing Heterogeneity in Financial Markets," Working Papers 111, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  15. Farebrother, R W, 1973. "Simplified Samuelson Conditions for Cubic and Quartic Equations," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 41(4), pages 396-400, December.
  16. Ahmad Naimzada & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2006. "Heterogeneous Fundamentalists and Imitative Processes," Working Papers 104, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
  17. Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank, 2005. "Representativeness of news and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 677-689, April.
  18. Scheffknecht, Lukas & Geiger, Felix, 2011. "A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis," FZID Discussion Papers 37-2011, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  19. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  20. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
  21. Paul De Grauwe & Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser, 2007. "Modeling Optimism and Pessimism in the Foreign Exchange Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 1962, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  23. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9891.
  24. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matteo Pelagatti)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.