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A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis

  • Scheffknecht, Lukas
  • Geiger, Felix

We merge a financial market model with leverage-constrained, heterogeneous agents with a reduced-form version of the New-Keynesian standard model. Agents in both submodels are assumed to be boundedly rational. The fi nancial market model produces endogenously arising boom-bust cycles. It is also capable to generate highly non-linear deleveraging processes, fi re sales and ultimately a default scenario. Asset price booms are triggered via self-fulfilling prophecies. Asset price busts are induced by agents' choice of an increasingly fragile balance sheet structure during good times. Their vulnerability is inevitably revealed by small, randomly occurring shocks. Our transmission channel of financial market activity to the real sector embraces a recent strand of literature shedding light on the link between the active balance sheet management of financial market participants, the induced procyclical fluctuations of desired risk compensations and their final impact on the real economy. We show that a systematic central bank reaction on financial market developments dampens macroeconomic volatility considerably. Furthermore, restricting leverage in a countercyclical fashion limits the magnitude of financial cycles and hence their impact on the real economy.

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Paper provided by University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID) in its series FZID Discussion Papers with number 37-2011.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:fziddp:372011
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  1. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  4. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
  5. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in an DSGE model for the US," Research Discussion Papers 11/2010, Bank of Finland.
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  7. Zephyr, 2010. "The city," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1-2), pages 154-155, February.
  8. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Money, liquidity, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 360, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2010. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: A synthesis," Economics Working Papers 2010,10, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  10. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, 09.
  11. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
  12. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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