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Rational expectations, psychology and inductive learning via moving thresholds

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  • Lamba, H.
  • Seaman, T.

Abstract

This paper modifies a previously introduced class of heterogeneous agent models in a way that allows for the inclusion of different types of agent motivations and behaviours in a consistent manner. The agents operate within a highly simplified environment where they are only able to be long or short one unit of the asset. The price of the asset is influenced by both an external information stream and the demand of the agents. The current strategy of each agent is defined by a pair of moving thresholds straddling the current price. When the price crosses either of the thresholds for a particular agent, that agent switches position and a new pair of thresholds is generated.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamba, H. & Seaman, T., 2008. "Rational expectations, psychology and inductive learning via moving thresholds," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3904-3909.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:15:p:3904-3909
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    2. Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir & Seaman, Tim, 2005. "A threshold model of investor psychology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 463-478.
    3. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    4. R. Cross & M. Grinfeld & H. Lamba & T. Seaman, 2007. "Stylized facts from a threshold-based heterogeneous agent model," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 213-218, May.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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    1. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2013. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: The impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5920-5938.

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