Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows us to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Scalas, Enrico & Kaizoji, Taisei & Kirchler, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Tedeschi, Alessandra, 2006.
"Waiting times between orders and trades in double-auction markets,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 463-471.
- Enrico Scalas & Taisei Kaizoji & Michael Kirchler & Juergen Huber & Alessandra Tedeschi, 2006. "Waiting times between orders and trades in double-auction markets," Papers physics/0608273, arXiv.org.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Liggett, Thomas M. & Rolles, Silke W. W., 2004. "An infinite stochastic model of social network formation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 65-80, September.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, "undated". "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Jean-Pierre Nadal & Denis Phan & Mirta Gordon & Jean Vannimenus, 2005. "Multiple equilibria in a monopoly market with heterogeneous agents and externalities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 557-568.
- Denis Phan & Mirta Gordon & J.-P. Nadal & J. Vannimenus, 2005. "Multiple equilibria in a monopoly market with heterogeneous agents and externalities," Post-Print halshs-00078792, HAL.
- Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Jose Scheinkman, 2000. "Non-Market Interactions," NBER Working Papers 8053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2001. "Non-Market Interactions," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1914, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- Gordon, Mirta B. & Nadal, Jean-Pierre & Phan, Denis & Vannimenus, Jean, 2005. "Seller's dilemma due to social interactions between customers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 356(2), pages 628-640.
- Mirta Gordon & Jean-Pierre Nadal & Denis Phan & Jean Vannimenus, 2005. "Sellers dilemna due to social interactions between customers," Post-Print halshs-00078451, HAL.
- Ulrich Horst, 2005. "Financial price fluctuations in a stock market model with many interacting agents," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 917-932, 06.
- Horst, Ulrich, 2001. "Financial price fluctuations in a stock market model with many interacting agents," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,36, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y-C. Zhang, 2001. "From Minority Games to real markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 168-176.
- D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y. -C. Zhang, 2000. "From Minority Games to real markets," Papers cond-mat/0011042, arXiv.org.
- Kaizoji, Taisei, 2000. "Speculative bubbles and crashes in stock markets: an interacting-agent model of speculative activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 493-506.
- Taisei Kaizoji, 2000. "Speculative bubbles and crashes in stock market: an interacting-agent model of speculative activity," Papers cond-mat/0010263, arXiv.org.
- Horst, Ulrich & Rothe, Christian, 2008. "Queuing, Social Interactions, And The Microstructure Of Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 211-233, April.
- Lima, F.W.S. & Stauffer, D., 2006. "Ising model simulation in directed lattices and networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 423-429.
- Takayama,Akira, 1985. "Mathematical Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314985, September.
- Hans Föllmer & Martin Schweizer, 1993. "A Microeconomic Approach to Diffusion Models For Stock Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23.
- Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
- Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Brock, William A., 1991. "Understanding macroeconomic time series using complex systems theory," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 119-141, June.
- Brock, W.A., 1991. "Understainding Macroeconomic Time Series Using Complex Systems Theory," Working papers 9111, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
- Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2001. "Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/0106657, arXiv.org.
- Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael, 2009. "Network structure and N-dependence in agent-based herding models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 78-92, January.
- Weisbuch, Gérard & Stauffer, Dietrich, 2003. "Adjustment and social choice," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 651-662. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)