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From Minority Games to real markets

Author

Listed:
  • D. Challet
  • A. Chessa
  • M. Marsili
  • Y. -C. Zhang

Abstract

We address the question of market efficiency using the Minority Game (MG) model. First we show that removing unrealistic features of the MG leads to models which reproduce a scaling behavior close to what is observed in real markets. In particular we find that i) fat tails and clustered volatility arise at the phase transition point and that ii) the crossover to random walk behavior of prices is a finite size effect. This, on one hand, suggests that markets operate close to criticality, where the market is marginally efficient. On the other it allows one to measure the distance from criticality of real market, using cross-over times. The artificial market described by the MG is then studied as an ecosystem with different_species_ of traders. This clarifies the nature of the interaction and the particular role played by the various populations.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y. -C. Zhang, 2000. "From Minority Games to real markets," Papers cond-mat/0011042, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0011042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe & Solomon, Sorin, 2000. "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124458901.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes," Papers cond-mat/0307332, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
    2. David Goldbaum, 2009. "Follow the Leader: Steady State Analysis of a Dynamic Social Network," Working Paper Series 158, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Schütz, Gunter M. & de Almeida Prado, Fernando Pigeard & Harris, Rosemary J. & Belitsky, Vladimir, 2009. "Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(19), pages 4126-4144.
    4. Ren, F. & Zhang, Y.C., 2008. "Trading model with pair pattern strategies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5523-5534.
    5. Gunter M. Schutz & Fernando Pigeard de Almeida Prado & Rosemary J. Harris & Vladimir Belitsky, 2007. "Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents," Papers 0801.0003, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2009.
    6. Andre Cardoso Barato & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Marco Bardoscia & Matteo Marsili, 2011. "Impact of meta-order in the Minority Game," Papers 1112.3908, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2012.
    7. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2008. "Time variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-136, January.
    8. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3173-3182.
    9. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2006. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 115-123.
    10. Luca Grilli & Angelo Sfrecola, 2005. "Neural Networks to Predict Financial Time Series in a Minority Game Context," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    11. Marsili, Matteo, 2001. "Market mechanism and expectations in minority and majority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 93-103.
    12. Daniel C. Wagner & Thilo A. Schmitt & Rudi Schafer & Thomas Guhr & Dietrich E. Wolf, 2014. "Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing," Papers 1404.7356, arXiv.org.
    13. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2003. "A minimal noise trader model with realistic time series properties," Economics Working Papers 2003-15, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    14. Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2003. "Self-referential behaviour, overreaction and conventions in financial markets," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500020, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    15. Matteo Ortisi & Valerio Zuccolo, 2012. "From Minority Game to Black & Scholes pricing," Papers 1205.2521, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    16. Yang, G. & Chen, Y. & Huang, J.P., 2016. "The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 98-108.
    17. Challet, Damien, 2008. "Inter-pattern speculation: Beyond minority, majority and $-games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 85-100, January.
    18. J. Wiesinger & D. Sornette & J. Satinover, 2013. "Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 475-492, April.
    19. David Morton de Lachapelle & Damien Challet, 2009. "Turnover, account value and diversification of real traders: evidence of collective portfolio optimizing behavior," Papers 0912.4723, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
    20. Wagner, D.C. & Schmitt, T.A. & Schäfer, R. & Guhr, T. & Wolf, D.E., 2014. "Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 347-353.
    21. Wyart, Matthieu & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "Self-referential behaviour, overreaction and conventions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, May.
    22. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2007. "A Noise Trader Model As A Generator Of Apparent Financial Power Laws And Long Memory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 80-101, November.
    23. Lisa Borland & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005. "On a multi-timescale statistical feedback model for volatility fluctuations," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500059, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    24. Mine Caglar, 2011. "Stock Price Processes with Infinite Source Poisson Agents," Papers 1106.6300, arXiv.org.
    25. L. Borland & J. -Ph. Bouchaud, 2005. "On a multi-timescale statistical feedback model for volatility fluctuations," Papers physics/0507073, arXiv.org.

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