Regulatory Medicine Against Financial Market Instability: What Helps And What Hurts?
Do we know if a short selling ban or a Tobin Tax result in more stable asset prices? Or do they in fact make things worse? Just like medicine regulatory measures in financial markets aim at improving an already complex system, cause side effects and interplay with other measures. In this paper an agent based stock market model is built that tries to find answers to the questions above. In a stepwise procedure regulatory measures are introduced and their implications on market liquidity and stability examined. Particularly, the effects of (i) a ban on short selling (ii) a mandatory risk limit, i.e. a Value-at-Risk limit, (iii) an introduction of a Tobin Tax, i.e. transaction tax on trading, and (iv) any arbitrary combination of the measures are observed and discussed. The model is set up to incorporate non-linear feedback effects of leverage and liquidity constraints leading to fire sales. In its unregulated version the model outcome is capable of reproducing stylised facts of asset returns like fat tails and clustered volatility. Introducing regulatory measures shows that only a mandatory risk limit is beneficial from every perspective, while a short selling ban – though reducing volatility – increases tail risk. The contrary holds true for a Tobin Tax: it reduces the occurrence of crashes but increases volatility. Furthermore, the interplay of measures is not negligible: measures block each other and a well chosen combination can mitigate unforeseen side effects. Concerning the Tobin Tax the findings indicate that an overdose can do severe harm.
|Date of creation:||18 Oct 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria|
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7205
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7299
Web page: http://www.oenb.at/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
- Michael Hanke & J?rgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Matthias Sutter, 2007.
"The economic consequences of a Tobin tax - An experimental analysis,"
2007-18, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Hanke, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Sutter, Matthias, 2010. "The economic consequences of a Tobin tax--An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 58-71, May.
- Paolo Pellizzari & Frank Westerhoff, 2009.
"Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures,"
- Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 850-863, December.
- Paolo Pelizzari & Frank Westerhoff, 2007. "Some Effects of Transaction Taxes Under Different Microstructures," Research Paper Series 212, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Paolo Pellizzari & Frank Westerhoff, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Working Papers 190, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
- J. B. Satinover & D. Sornette, 2007. "”Illusion of control” in Time-Horizon Minority and Parrondo Games," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 60(3), pages 369-384, December.
- Frank Westerhoff, 2002.
"Heterogeneous Traders and the Tobin Tax,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
51, Society for Computational Economics.
- Damien Challet & Matteo Marsili & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2001.
"Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games,"
- Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 514-524.
- James Tobin, 1978.
"A Proposal for International Monetary Reform,"
Eastern Economic Journal,
Eastern Economic Association, vol. 4(3-4), pages 153-159, Jul/Oct.
- B. LeBaron, 2001. "A builder's guide to agent-based financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 254-261.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- G. Ehrenstein & F. Westerhoff & D. Stauffer, 2005.
"Tobin tax and market depth,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 213-218.
- Friedman, Daniel & Abraham, Ralph, 2009. "Bubbles and crashes: Gradient dynamics in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 922-937, April.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- Mannaro, Katiuscia & Marchesi, Michele & Setzu, Alessio, 2008. "Using an artificial financial market for assessing the impact of Tobin-like transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 445-462, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.