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Estimation of Dynamic Models with Nonparametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood

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  • Dennis Kristensen
  • Yongseok Shin

    () (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

We propose a simulated maximum likelihood estimator for dynamic models based on non-parametric kernel methods. Our method is designed for models without latent dynamics from which one can simulate observations but cannot obtain a closed-form representation of the likelihood function. Using the simulated observations, we nonparametrically estimate the density - which is unknown in closed form - by kernel methods, and then construct a likelihood function that can be maximized. We prove for dynamic models that this nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood (NPSML) estimator is consistent and asymptotically efficient. NPSML is applicable to general classes of models and is easy to implement in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Kristensen & Yongseok Shin, 2008. "Estimation of Dynamic Models with Nonparametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood," CREATES Research Papers 2008-58, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic models; estimation; kernel density estimation; maximum-likelihood; simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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