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On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations


  • A. S. Hurn
  • K. A. Lindsay
  • V. L. Martin


A method for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated maximum likelihood is presented. This method is feasible whenever the underlying SDE is a Markov process. Estimates are compared to those generated by indirect inference, discrete and exact maximum likelihood. The technique is illustrated with reference to a one-factor model of the term structure of interest rates using 3-month US Treasury Bill data. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • A. S. Hurn & K. A. Lindsay & V. L. Martin, 2003. "On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 45-63, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:24:y:2003:i:1:p:45-63

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    2. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
    3. Pastorello, Sergio & Renault, Eric & Touzi, Nizar, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Random-Variance Option Pricing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 358-367, July.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-560, May.
    5. Eckhard Platen, 1999. "An Introduction to Numerical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations," Research Paper Series 6, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
    7. Pagan, A.R. & Hall, A.D. & Martin, V., 1995. "Modelling the Term Structure," Papers 284, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
    8. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-993, July.
    9. Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz., 1979. "A Continuous-Time Approach to the Pricing of Bonds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 85, University of California at Berkeley.
    10. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Teaching an old dog new tricks: Improved estimation of the parameters of SDEs by numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation," Stan Hurn Discussion Papers 2006-01, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    2. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
    3. John Stachurski & Vance Martin, 2008. "Computing the Distributions of Economic Models via Simulation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 443-450, March.
    4. A. S. Hurn & J. I. Jeisman & K. A. Lindsay, 0. "Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(3), pages 390-455.
    5. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations. Working paper #2," NCER Working Paper Series 2, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    6. Kathleen Goffey & Andrew Worthington, 2002. "Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 117, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    7. Siddhartha Chib & Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models," Economics Papers 2004-W20, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    8. Andrew D. Sanford & Gael Martin, 2004. "Bayesian Analysis of Continuous Time Models of the Australian Short Rate," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Isambi Mbalawata & Simo Särkkä & Heikki Haario, 2013. "Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations with Markov chain Monte Carlo and non-linear Kalman filtering," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1195-1223, June.
    10. J. Jimenez & R. Biscay & T. Ozaki, 2005. "Inference Methods for Discretely Observed Continuous-Time Stochastic Volatility Models: A Commented Overview," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 12(2), pages 109-141, June.
    11. Umberto Picchini & Andrea De Gaetano & Susanne Ditlevsen, 2010. "Stochastic Differential Mixed-Effects Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 37(1), pages 67-90.
    12. A. Hurn & J. Jeisman & K. Lindsay, 2007. "Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks: Improved Estimation of the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations by Numerical Solution of the Fokker-Planck Equation," NCER Working Paper Series 9, National Centre for Econometric Research.

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