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On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations

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  • A. S. Hurn
  • K. A. Lindsay
  • V. L. Martin

Abstract

. A method for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated maximum likelihood is presented. This method is feasible whenever the underlying SDE is a Markov process. Estimates are compared to those generated by indirect inference, discrete and exact maximum likelihood. The technique is illustrated with reference to a one‐factor model of the term structure of interest rates using 3‐month US Treasury Bill data.

Suggested Citation

  • A. S. Hurn & K. A. Lindsay & V. L. Martin, 2003. "On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 45-63, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:24:y:2003:i:1:p:45-63
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9892.00292
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    Cited by:

    1. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Teaching an old dog new tricks: Improved estimation of the parameters of SDEs by numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation," Stan Hurn Discussion Papers 2006-01, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    2. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
    3. John Stachurski & Vance Martin, 2008. "Computing the Distributions of Economic Models via Simulation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 443-450, March.
    4. A. S. Hurn & J. I. Jeisman & K. A. Lindsay, 0. "Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 390-455.
    5. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations. Working paper #2," NCER Working Paper Series 2, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    6. Siddhartha Chib & Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models," Economics Papers 2004-W20, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Osnat Stramer & Jun Yan, 2007. "Asymptotics of an Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation for the Transition Density of Diffusion Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 483-496, December.
    8. Andrew D. Sanford & Gael Martin, 2004. "Bayesian Analysis of Continuous Time Models of the Australian Short Rate," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Isambi Mbalawata & Simo Särkkä & Heikki Haario, 2013. "Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations with Markov chain Monte Carlo and non-linear Kalman filtering," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1195-1223, June.
    10. J. Jimenez & R. Biscay & T. Ozaki, 2005. "Inference Methods for Discretely Observed Continuous-Time Stochastic Volatility Models: A Commented Overview," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 12(2), pages 109-141, June.
    11. Umberto Picchini & Andrea De Gaetano & Susanne Ditlevsen, 2010. "Stochastic Differential Mixed‐Effects Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 37(1), pages 67-90, March.
    12. Andrew D. Sanford & Gael M. Martin, 2006. "Bayesian comparison of several continuous time models of the Australian short rate," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(2), pages 309-326, June.
    13. A. Hurn & J. Jeisman & K. Lindsay, 2007. "Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks: Improved Estimation of the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations by Numerical Solution of the Fokker-Planck Equation," NCER Working Paper Series 9, National Centre for Econometric Research.

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