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Computing the Distributions of Economic Models Via Simulation

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  • John Stachurski

    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper studies a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing distributions of state variables when the underlying model is a Markov process. It is shown that the L1 error of the estimator always converges to zero with probability one, and often at a parametric rate. A related technique for computing stationary distributions is also investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • John Stachurski, 2006. "Computing the Distributions of Economic Models Via Simulation," KIER Working Papers 615, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:615
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    File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP615.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 541-557.
    3. Kazuo Nishimura & Ryszard Rudnicki & John Stachurski, 2012. "Stochastic Optimal Growth with Nonconvexities," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 261-288, Springer.
    4. Shane G. Henderson & Peter W. Glynn, 2001. "Computing Densities for Markov Chains via Simulation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 375-400, May.
    5. Johnson, Paul A., 2005. "A continuous state space approach to "Convergence by Parts"," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 317-321, March.
    6. William A. Brock & Leonard J. Mirman, 2001. "Optimal Economic Growth And Uncertainty: The Discounted Case," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 1, pages 3-37, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Establishment Size Dynamics in the Aggregate Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1639-1666, December.
    8. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-993, July.
    9. A. S. Hurn & K. A. Lindsay & V. L. Martin, 2003. "On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 45-63, January.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E., 2005. "Exact Mean Integrated Squared Error Of Higher Order Kernel Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1031-1057, December.
    11. Kazuo Nishimura & John Stachurski, 2012. "Stability of Stochastic Optimal Growth Models: A New Approach," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 289-307, Springer.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. R. Anton Braun & Huiyu Li & John Stachurski, 2011. "Generalized Look-Ahead Methods for Computing Stationary Densities," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-558, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    2. Stephane Verani, 2018. "Aggregate Consequences of Dynamic Credit Relationships," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 44-67, July.
    3. Richard Anton Braun & Huiyu Li & John Stachurski, 2009. "Computing Densities: A Conditional Monte Carlo Estimator," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-678, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Antunes, António & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Villamil, Anne, 2008. "Computing general equilibrium models with occupational choice and financial frictions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 553-568, July.
    5. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    6. Vance Martin & Yoshihiko Nishiyama & John Stachurski, 2011. "A Goodness of Fit Test for Ergodic Markov Processes," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-557, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    7. Stephane Verani, 2018. "Aggregate Consequences of Dynamic Credit Relationships," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 44-67, July.
    8. R. Anton Braun & Huiyu Li & John Stachurski, 2012. "Generalized Look-Ahead Methods for Computing Stationary Densities," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 489-500, August.
    9. John Stachurski & Huiyu Li & Richard Anton Braun, 2009. "Computing Densities in Stochastic Recursive Economies: Generalized Look-Ahead Techniques," 2009 Meeting Papers 975, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Antunes, António & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Villamil, Anne, 2008. "Computing general equilibrium models with occupational choice and financial frictions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 553-568, July.
    11. John Stachurski, 2009. "Economic Dynamics: Theory and Computation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012774, April.
    12. Bildirici, Melike & Ersin, Özgür, 2012. "Nonlinear volatility models in economics: smooth transition and neural network augmented GARCH, APGARCH, FIGARCH and FIAPGARCH models," MPRA Paper 40330, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2012.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Distributions; Markov processes; simulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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