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Empirical validation of stochastic models of interacting agents

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  • S. Alfarano
  • T. Lux
  • F. Wagner

Abstract

The present paper expands on recent attempts at estimating the parameters of simple interacting-agent models of financial markets [S. Alfarano, T. Lux, F. Wagner, Computational Economics 26, 19 (2005); S. Alfarano, T. Lux, F. Wagner, in Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, edited by W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005), pp. 241–254]. Here we provide additional evidence by (i) investigating a large sample of individual stocks from the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and (ii) comparing results from the baseline noise trader/fundamentalist model of [S. Alfarano, T. Lux, F. Wagner, Computational Economics 26, 19 (2005)] with those obtained from an even simpler version with a preponderance of noise trader behaviour. As it turns out, this somewhat more parsimonious “maximally skewed” variant is often not rejected in favor of the more complex version. We also find that all stocks are dominated by noise trader behaviour irrespective of whether the data prefer the skewed or the baseline version of our model. Copyright EDP Sciences/Società Italiana di Fisica/Springer-Verlag 2007

Suggested Citation

  • S. Alfarano & T. Lux & F. Wagner, 2007. "Empirical validation of stochastic models of interacting agents," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 183-187, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:55:y:2007:i:2:p:183-187
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2006-00385-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz, Wolfgang & Ramser, Hans Jürgen & Stadler, Manfred (ed.), 2005. "Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar Ottobeuren, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 34, number urn:isbn:9783161487767.
    2. Alan L. Lewis, 2000. "Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility," Option Valuation under Stochastic Volatility, Finance Press, number ovsv, December.
    3. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
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    Cited by:

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    3. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2008. "The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics," Papers 0803.2996, arXiv.org.
    4. Donovan Platt, 2019. "A Comparison of Economic Agent-Based Model Calibration Methods," Papers 1902.05938, arXiv.org.
    5. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "A calibration procedure for analyzing stock price dynamics in an agent-based framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-25.
    6. Colasante, Annarita, 2016. "Evolution of Cooperation in Public Good Game," MPRA Paper 72577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Platt, Donovan, 2020. "A comparison of economic agent-based model calibration methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bovi, Maurizio & Cerqueti, Roy, 2016. "Bayesian estimation and entropy for economic dynamic stochastic models: An exploration of overconsumption," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 143-157.
    9. Alexandru Stan, 2015. "A Price Crash Alerting Strategy for Agent-based Artificial Financial Markets," MIC 2015: Managing Sustainable Growth; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Portorož, Slovenia, 28–30 May 2015,, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.
    10. Francesco Lamperti, 2015. "An Information Theoretic Criterion for Empirical Validation of Time Series Models," LEM Papers Series 2015/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    12. Donovan Platt & Tim Gebbie, 2016. "The Problem of Calibrating an Agent-Based Model of High-Frequency Trading," Papers 1606.01495, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    13. Zila, Eric & Kukacka, Jiri, 2023. "Moment set selection for the SMM using simple machine learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 366-391.
    14. Lamperti, Francesco, 2018. "An information theoretic criterion for empirical validation of simulation models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 83-106.
    15. Donovan Platt, 2022. "Bayesian Estimation of Economic Simulation Models Using Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 599-650, February.
    16. Colasante, Annarita, 2017. "Selection of the distributional rule as an alternative tool to foster cooperation in a Public Good Game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 482-492.
    17. Tae-Seok Jang, 2015. "Identification of Social Interaction Effects in Financial Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 207-238, February.
    18. Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati, 2012. "The Empirical Validation of an Agent-based Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 525-547.

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