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Stabilizing an Unstable Complex Economy-On the limitations of simple rules

Author

Listed:
  • Isabelle Salle

    () (Utrecht University, School of Economics)

  • Pascal Seppecher

    () (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

Abstract

This paper analyzes a range of alternative specifications of the interest rate policy rule within a macroeconomic, stock-flow consistent, agent-based model. In this model, firms’ leverage strategies evolve under the selection pressure of market competition. The resulting process of collective adaptation generates endogenous booms and busts along credit cycles. As feedback loops on aggregate demand affect the goods and the labor markets, the real and the financial sides of the economy are closely interconnected. The baseline scenario is able to qualitatively reproduce a wide range of stylized facts, and to match quantitative orders of magnitude of the main economic indicators. We find that, despite the implementation of credit and balance sheet related prudential policies, the emerging dynamics feature strong instability. Targeting movements in the net worth of firms help dampen the credit cycles, and simultaneously reduce financial and macroeconomic volatility, but does not eliminate the occurrence of financial crises along with high costs in terms of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Salle & Pascal Seppecher, 2017. "Stabilizing an Unstable Complex Economy-On the limitations of simple rules," CEPN Working Papers 2017-07, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
  • Handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-07
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    2. Ashraf, Quamrul & Gershman, Boris & Howitt, Peter, 2017. "Banks, market organization, and macroeconomic performance: An agent-based computational analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 143-180.
    3. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Marc Lavoie, 2017. "What drives markups? Evolutionary pricing in an agent-based stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model," CEPN Working Papers hal-01486597, HAL.
    4. Seppecher, Pascal, 2012. "Flexibility Of Wages And Macroeconomic Instability In An Agent-Based Computational Model With Endogenous Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 284-297, September.
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    6. Seppecher, P. & Salle, I. & Lang, D., 2016. "Is the Market Really a Good Teacher?," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    7. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2015. "Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent modelling: a survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 157-187.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Jo Michell, 2014. "Pseudo-Goodwin cycles in a Minsky model," Working Papers PKWP1405, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG).
    9. Frank Smets, 2014. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: How Closely Interlinked?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 263-300, June.
    10. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    11. Seppecher, P. & Salle, I. & Lang, D., 2016. "Is the Market Really a Good Teacher?," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    12. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle, 2015. "Deleveraging crises and deep recessions: a behavioural approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3771-3790, July.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy; What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 11/238, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Assenza, Tiziana & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2015. "Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 5-28.
    15. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    16. Dudley, William, 2015. "Is the active use of macroprudential tools institutionally realistic?," Speech 180, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind; Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?," IMF Working Papers 16/3, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agent-based modeling; Credit cycles; Monetary and Macroprudential policies; Leaning against the wind;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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