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The Time Evolution of the Social Cost of Carbon: An Application of FUND

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  • Anthoff, David
  • Rose, Steven K.
  • Tol, Richard S. J.
  • Waldhoff, Stephanie

Abstract

We estimate the growth rate of the social cost of carbon. This is an indication of the optimal rate of acceleration of greenhouse gas emission reduction policy over time. We find that the social cost of carbon increases by 1.3% to 3.9% per year, with a central estimate of 2.2%. Previous studies found an average rate of 2.3% and a range of 0.9-4.1%. The rate of increase of the social carbon depends on a range of factors, including the pure rate of time preference, the rate of risk aversion, equity weighting, the socio-economic and emission scenarios, the climate sensitivity, dynamic vulnerability, and the curvature of the impact functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthoff, David & Rose, Steven K. & Tol, Richard S. J. & Waldhoff, Stephanie, 2011. "The Time Evolution of the Social Cost of Carbon: An Application of FUND," Papers WP405, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haraden, John, 1992. "An improved shadow price for CO2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 419-426.
    2. Thomas Sterner & U. Martin Persson, 2008. "An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 61-76, Winter.
    3. P. Michael Link & Richard S. J. Tol, 2004. "Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 3(2), pages 99-114, September.
    4. Maddison, David, 1995. "A cost-benefit analysis of slowing climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 337-346.
    5. Tol, Richard S. J., 2001. "Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 71-85, January.
    6. Onno J. Kuik & Barbara Bucher & Michela Catenacci & Etem Karakaya & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Methodological aspects of recent climate change damage cost studies," Working Papers FNU-122, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2006.
    7. Wahba, Mohammed & Hope, Chris, 2006. "The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3305-3316, November.
    8. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    9. Haraden, John, 1993. "An updated shadow price for CO2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 303-307.
    10. Tol, Richard S. J. & Narita, Daiju & Anthoff, David, 2008. "Damage Costs of Climate Change through Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND," Papers WP259, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Price, Colin, 2018. "Declining discount rate and the social cost of carbon: Forestry consequences," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 39-45.
    2. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    3. Fischer, Carolyn & Salant, Stephen, 2012. "Alternative Climate Policies and Intertemporal Emissions Leakage: Quantifying the Green Paradox," Discussion Papers dp-12-16, Resources For the Future.
    4. O'Mahony, Tadhg & Escardó-Serra, Paula & Dufour, Javier, 2018. "Revisiting ISEW Valuation Approaches: The Case of Spain Including the Costs of Energy Depletion and of Climate Change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 292-303.
    5. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    6. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agency/cost/equity/Greenhouse Gas emission reduction/growth/Policy/protection/risk/risk aversion/scenarios/Social cost of carbon;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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