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Are there trends in hurricane destruction?

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  • Roger A. Pielke

    (Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado)

Abstract

Arising from: K. Emanuel Nature 436, 686–688 (2005); K. Emanuel reply . Since the record impact of Hurricane Katrina, attention has focused on understanding trends in hurricanes and their destructive potential. Emanuel1 reports a marked increase in the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on identification of a trend in an accumulated annual index of power dissipation in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific since the 1970s. If hurricanes are indeed becoming more destructive over time, then this trend should manifest itself in more destruction. However, my analysis of a long-term data set of hurricane losses in the United States shows no upward trend once the data are normalized to remove the effects of societal changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger A. Pielke, 2005. "Are there trends in hurricane destruction?," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7071), pages 11-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:438:y:2005:i:7071:d:10.1038_nature04426
    DOI: 10.1038/nature04426
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    Cited by:

    1. Boudreault, Mathieu & Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Étienne, 2014. "Risk models with dependence between claim occurrences and severities for Atlantic hurricanes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 123-132.
    2. Shan Ge, 2022. "How Do Financial Constraints Affect Product Pricing? Evidence from Weather and Life Insurance Premiums," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 449-503, February.
    3. Patrick J. Michaels, 2008. "Evidence for “Publication Bias†concerning Global Warming in Science and Nature," Energy & Environment, , vol. 19(2), pages 287-301, March.
    4. Döhrmann, David & Gürtler, Marc & Hibbeln, Martin, 2013. "Insured loss inflation: How natural catastrophes affect reconstruction costs," Working Papers IF44V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    5. Richard Tol, 2013. "The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 795-808, April.
    6. Asim Zia, 2012. "Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change: Economic Damages from Land-Falling Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf States of the USA, 1900–2005," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(5), pages 1-16, May.
    7. David Döhrmann & Marc Gürtler & Martin Hibbeln, 2017. "Insured Loss Inflation: How Natural Catastrophes Affect Reconstruction Costs," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 851-879, September.
    8. Hu, Zhongchen, 2022. "Social interactions and households’ flood insurance decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 414-432.
    9. Mendelsohn, Robert & Emanuel, Kerry & Chonabayashi, Shun, 2011. "The impact of climate change on hurricane damages in the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5561, The World Bank.
    10. W. Botzen & J. Bergh & L. Bouwer, 2010. "Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: a global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(3), pages 577-598, March.
    11. Dessaint, Olivier & Matray, Adrien, 2017. "Do managers overreact to salient risks? Evidence from hurricane strikes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 97-121.

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