Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects
The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans, so any impact on US crop yields will have implications for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level crop yields in the US with a fine-scale weather data set that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures between the minimum and maximum within each day and across all days in the growing season. Yields increase in temperature until about 29C for corn, 30C for soybeans, and 32C for cotton, but temperatures above these thresholds become very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found whether we consider time series or cross-sectional variation in weather and yields. This suggests limited potential for adaptation within crop species because the latter includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the former does not. Area-weighted average yields given current growing regions are predicted to decrease by 31-43% under the slowest warming scenario and 67-79% under the most rapid warming scenario by the end of the century.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Greenstone & Olivier Deschenes, 2006.
"The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather,"
2006.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Deschenes, Olivier & Greenstone, Michael, 2004. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6w7242cj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone, 2006. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather," Working Papers 0601, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November.
- Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2004.
"Weather forecasting for weather derivatives,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2004/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 10141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
- Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
- Beach, Robert H. & Thomson, Allison M. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Climate Change Impacts On Us Agriculture," Proceedings Issues, 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart- Hohenheim, Germany 91393, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
- Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
- Christopher Timmins, 2006. "Endogenous Land use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 119-142, 01.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13799. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.