IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mof/wpaper/ron243.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Healthcare Services in Japan - an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy -

Author

Listed:
  • Daisuke Ishikawa

    (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan)

  • Junji Ueda

    (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan)

  • Real Arai

    (Graduate School of Social Sciences, Hiroshima University)

Abstract

In order to quantify the effects of declining birthrate and changing demographic structure on the Japanese economy, we show the results of simulations by using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG) in an open economy. The model is constructed to incorporate substitutability between domestic products and imports and show the evolution of the industrial structure, reflecting the impacts of aging population from both supply and demand sides of the economy. Based on the scenario of increasing public demands for healthcare services, the share of healthcare sector expands to almost 2.5 times in 2050 relative to the base year 1985. The result of a simulation based on an alternative scenario where the government increases net transfer to the elderly shows smaller labor participation and GDP per capita, due to the income effects and crowding out of private capital by the increase of government debt outstanding in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Daisuke Ishikawa & Junji Ueda & Real Arai, 2012. "Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Healthcare Services in Japan - an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy -," Discussion papers ron243, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mof:wpaper:ron243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/10248500/www.mof.go.jp/pri/research/discussion_paper/ron243.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Howard, Peter & Sterner, Thomas, 2014. "Raising the Temperature on Food Prices: Climate Change, Food Security, and the Social Cost of Carbon," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170648, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Arai, Real & Ueda, Junji, 2013. "A numerical evaluation of the sustainable size of the primary deficit in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-75.
    3. Real Arai & Masahiko Nakazawa, 2014. "A numerical analysis of Japan's fiscal sustainability in a simple OLG model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1194-1197, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multi-sector OLG model; demographic change; soaring public healthcare spending;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mof:wpaper:ron243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Policy Research Institute). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/prigvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.