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Will They Stay or Will They Go? Simulating the Dynamics of Single‐Holder Farms in a Dualistic Farm Structure in Slovakia

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  • Kathrin Happe
  • Hauke Schnicke
  • Christoph Sahrbacher
  • Konrad Kellermann

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic interplay between farm exit and entry of single‐holder farms (SF) in a dualistic farm structure in the Nitra region of the Slovak Republic. Our focus is on economic and noneconomic reasons for farm exit. The impact of varying both the likelihood of succession and the initial farm operator age distributions is studied. An agent‐based simulation model of structural change in agriculture is applied, which brings together farm‐internal and ‐external determinants and creates a set of endogenous adjustment reactions. We show that the stepwise introduction of direct payments of the Common Agricultural Policy in Slovakia has a strong impact on its structural development. In the short‐ to medium‐term, the dualistic farm structure together with a specific age structure of farms still persists as a response to the policy. The phasing‐in of payments persuades SF to stay and potential successors to enter. In the longer run, the initially heterogeneous farm structure becomes increasingly homogeneous toward larger SF. The prevalence of small SF in the medium‐ to long‐term is not necessarily a given. This may lead decision makers to reconsider the role of individual farms in rural development. Dans le présent article, nous avons étudié la relation entre l'entrée en agriculture de fermes à propriétaire unique et leur sortie dans un contexte d'agriculture dualiste dans la région de Nitra, en Slovaquie. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur les raisons économiques et non économiques qui motivent la sortie. Nous avons étudié l'impact liéà la possibilité de relève et à la répartition par âge des agriculteurs. Pour évaluer le changement structurel en agriculture, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation multi‐agent qui réunit les facteurs internes et externes et crée un ensemble de réactions d'adaptation endogènes. Nous avons montré que l'introduction progressive des paiements directs accordés dans le cadre de la Politique agricole commune en Slovaquie a des répercussions considérables sur son développement structurel. À court et à moyen termes, l'agriculture dualiste, combinée à la structure de l'âge des exploitations agricoles, demeure une réaction à la politique en place. La mise en place progressive des paiements persuade les exploitations à propriétaire unique de demeurer dans le secteur et encourage les successeurs potentiels à y entrer. À plus long terme, la structure agricole qui était hétérogène au départ devient de plus en plus homogène et compte de plus grandes fermes à propriétaire unique. À court et à moyen termes, la prévalence de petites fermes à propriétaire unique ne va pas nécessairement de soi. Cette situation pourrait amener les décideurs à réexaminer le rôle des exploitations individuelles dans le développement rural.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathrin Happe & Hauke Schnicke & Christoph Sahrbacher & Konrad Kellermann, 2009. "Will They Stay or Will They Go? Simulating the Dynamics of Single‐Holder Farms in a Dualistic Farm Structure in Slovakia," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 497-511, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:57:y:2009:i:4:p:497-511
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01167.x
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    2. Sahrbacher, Christoph, 2011. "Regional structural change in European agriculture: Effects of decoupling and EU accession," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 60, number 60, May.
    3. Bert, Federico E. & Podestá, Guillermo P. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Menéndez, Ángel N. & North, Michael & Tatara, Eric & Laciana, Carlos E. & Weber, Elke & Toranzo, Fernando Ruiz, 2011. "An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3486-3499.
    4. Kremmydas, Dimitris & Athanasiadis, Ioannis N. & Rozakis, Stelios, 2018. "A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 95-106.
    5. Andersen, Lykke E. & Groom, Ben & Killick, Evan & Ledezma, Juan Carlos & Palmer, Charles & Weinhold, Diana, 2017. "Modelling Land Use, Deforestation, and Policy: A Hybrid Optimisation-Heterogeneous Agent Model with Application to the Bolivian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 76-90.
    6. Meuwissen, M., 2018. "A framework to analyse the resilience of EU farming systems," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277352, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Reidsma, Pytrik & Janssen, Sander & Jansen, Jacques & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2018. "On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 111-125.
    8. Rich, Karl M. & Ross, R. Brent & Baker, A. Derek & Negassa, Asfaw, 2011. "Quantifying value chain analysis in the context of livestock systems in developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 214-222, April.
    9. Holderieath, Jason, 2016. "Spatiotemporal management under heterogeneous damage and uncertain parameters. An agent-based approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235850, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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