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Modelling land use, deforestation, and policy: a hybrid optimisation-heterogeneous agent model with application to the Bolivian Amazon

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  • Andersen, Lykke E.
  • Groom, Ben
  • Killick, Evan
  • Ledezma, Juan Carlos
  • Palmer, Charles
  • Weinhold, Diana

Abstract

We introduce a hybrid simulation model ('SimPachamama') designed to explore the complex socio-environmental trade-offs of alternative policy bundles and policy sequencing options for stemming deforestation and reducing poverty in tropical countries. Designed and calibrated to the initial conditions of a small forest village in rural Bolivia, the model consists of: (a) an optimising agricultural household module of heterogeneous agents that make individually optimal land-use decisions based on factor endowments and market conditions; (b) an encompassing general equilibrium ‘shell’ module that endogenously determines wages and links the agricultural labour market and rural-urban migration rates; and (c) a novel user-controlled policy-maker module that allows the user to make ‘real time’ choices over a variety of public and environmental policies that in turn impact land use, welfare, and migration. Over a 20-year simulation period the results highlight trade-offs between reductions in deforestation and improvements in household welfare that can only be overcome either when international REDD payments are offered or when decentralized deforestation taxes are implemented. The sequencing of policies plays a critical role in the determination of these results.

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  • Andersen, Lykke E. & Groom, Ben & Killick, Evan & Ledezma, Juan Carlos & Palmer, Charles & Weinhold, Diana, 2017. "Modelling land use, deforestation, and policy: a hybrid optimisation-heterogeneous agent model with application to the Bolivian Amazon," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69004, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:69004
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    2. Müller-Hansen, Finn & Heitzig, Jobst & Donges, Jonathan & Cardoso, Manoel F. & Dalla-Nora, Eloi L. & Andrade, Pedro R. & Kurths, Jürgen & Thonicke, Kirsten, 2019. "Can intensification of cattle ranching reduce deforestation in the Amazon? Insights from an agent-based social-ecological model," SocArXiv x5q9j, Center for Open Science.
    3. Cantillo, Tatiana & Garza, Nestor, 2022. "Armed conflict, institutions and deforestation: A dynamic spatiotemporal analysis of Colombia 2000–2018," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Müller-Hansen, Finn & Heitzig, Jobst & Donges, Jonathan F. & Cardoso, Manoel F. & Dalla-Nora, Eloi L. & Andrade, Pedro & Kurths, Jürgen & Thonicke, Kirsten, 2019. "Can Intensification of Cattle Ranching Reduce Deforestation in the Amazon? Insights From an Agent-based Social-Ecological Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 198-211.
    5. Beygi Heidarlou, Hadi & Banj Shafiei, Abbas & Erfanian, Mahdi & Tayyebi, Amin & Alijanpour, Ahmad, 2020. "Armed conflict and land-use changes: Insights from Iraq-Iran war in Zagros forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    simulation; Bolivia; deforestation; land use; policy; REDD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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