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Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Schneider, Uwe A.
  • Havlík, Petr
  • Schmid, Erwin
  • Valin, Hugo
  • Mosnier, Aline
  • Obersteiner, Michael
  • Böttcher, Hannes
  • Skalský, Rastislav
  • Balkovic, Juraj
  • Sauer, Timm
  • Fritz, Steffen

Abstract

Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.

Suggested Citation

  • Schneider, Uwe A. & Havlík, Petr & Schmid, Erwin & Valin, Hugo & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael & Böttcher, Hannes & Skalský, Rastislav & Balkovic, Juraj & Sauer, Timm & Fritz, Steffen, 2011. "Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 204-215, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:104:y:2011:i:2:p:204-215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lichtenberg, Erik & Strand, Ivar E., Jr., 2000. "Joint Adoption Of Multiple Technologies: A Dual, Latent Demand Approach," Working Papers 28566, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Su, Shiliang & Hu, Yi’na & Luo, Fanghan & Mai, Gengchen & Wang, Yaping, 2014. "Farmland fragmentation due to anthropogenic activity in rapidly developing region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-93.
    3. Kirchner, Mathias & Mitter, Hermine & Schönhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2014. "Integrated land use modelling to analyse climate change adaptation in Austrian agriculture," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182944, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. repec:bla:jageco:v:68:y:2017:i:2:p:386-406 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gohar, Abdelaziz A. & Cashman, Adrian, 2016. "A methodology to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, food security and economic welfare," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 51-64.
    6. Forte, Annachiara & Zucaro, Amalia & De Vico, Gionata & Fierro, Angelo, 2016. "Carbon footprint of heliciculture: A case study from an Italian experimental farm," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 99-111.
    7. repec:eee:agisys:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:107-117 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kipling, Richard P. & Bannink, André & Bellocchi, Gianni & Dalgaard, Tommy & Fox, Naomi J. & Hutchings, Nicholas J. & Kjeldsen, Chris & Lacetera, Nicola & Sinabell, Franz & Topp, Cairistiona F.E. & va, 2016. "Modeling European ruminant production systems: Facing the challenges of climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 24-37.
    9. Balkovič, Juraj & van der Velde, Marijn & Schmid, Erwin & Skalský, Rastislav & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael & Stürmer, Bernhard & Xiong, Wei, 2013. "Pan-European crop modelling with EPIC: Implementation, up-scaling and regional crop yield validation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 61-75.
    10. Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J., 2017. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8257, The World Bank.
    11. Elizabeth Webeck & Kazuyo Matsubae & Tetsuya Nagasaka, 2015. "Phosphorus requirements for the changing diets of China, India and Japan," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(3), pages 455-469, July.
    12. Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2014. "Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 554-570, October.
    13. Franziska Strauss & Erwin Schmid & Elena Moltchanova & Herbert Formayer & Xiuying Wang, 2012. "Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld Region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 641-664, April.
    14. Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Bozic, Marin, 2014. "On Price Endogeneity in the Analysis of Food Demand in China," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169767, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. repec:wsi:wepxxx:v:04:y:2018:i:01:n:s2382624x1650034x is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:eee:agisys:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:111-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mosnier, A. & Havlík, P. & Valin, H. & Baker, J. & Murray, B. & Feng, S. & Obersteiner, M. & McCarl, B.A. & Rose, S.K. & Schneider, U.A., 2013. "Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 602-614.
    18. A. Mosnier & P. Havlík & M. Obersteiner & K. Aoki & E. Schmid & S. Fritz & I. McCallum & S. Leduc, 2014. "Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 505-525, April.
    19. Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Bozic, Marin, 2013. "On Price Endogeneity in the Analysis of Food Demand in China," Staff Papers 159771, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    20. Havlik, Petr & Herrero, Mario & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael & Schmid, Erwin & Fuss, Sabine & Schneider, Uwe A., 2011. "Production system based global livestock sector modeling: Good news for the future," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114552, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Martínez-Alvarez, V. & García-Bastida, P.A. & Martin-Gorriz, B. & Soto-García, M., 2014. "Adaptive strategies of on-farm water management under water supply constraints in south-eastern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 59-67.
    22. Thakur, Amod K. & Mohanty, Rajeeb K. & Singh, Rajbir & Patil, Dhiraj U., 2015. "Enhancing water and cropping productivity through Integrated System of Rice Intensification (ISRI) with aquaculture and horticulture under rainfed conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 65-76.
    23. Henseler, Martin & Dechow, Rene, 2014. "Simulation of regional nitrous oxide emissions from German agricultural mineral soils: A linkage between an agro-economic model and an empirical emission model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 70-82.

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